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Africa’s leading economies are the next EM opportunity

Cornelis Vlooswijk, senior portfolio manager for Robeco’s Emerging Markets Equities strategy, talks about his investment background, how he sees emerging markets in light of the Middle East conflict, and how Africa’s leading economies are positioned in 2026.

Read the complete fundamental equity outlook in pdf

Autores/Autoras

    Portfolio Manager
    Sharolyn Reynard
    Investment Writer

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Resumen

  1. EM companies are now better able to cope with challenging environments
  2. Innovation is burgeoning in EM
  3. Africa offers attractive prospects with an improving macro backdrop and low valuations

What originally got you into investing?


I’ve been interested in markets since my early teens as I watched my father, a retail investor, check share prices every evening when he came home from work. I became intrigued at how quickly share prices could move for seemingly no reason. I liked numbers and accounting and the competitive aspect of investing. It’s not a lottery – you’re constantly challenged to gather information, assess it, and make calculated decisions that are better (or faster) than others.

While at university, I joined the student investment association and studied economics and finance. After graduating, I moved to London to work in M&A and corporate finance. It was an interesting experience, but it confirmed for me that I preferred the dynamics of stock market investing. Markets move constantly and you have to stay sharp, informed, and decisive. I initially started with Robeco as part of a research joint venture with Rabobank, and in 2008 moved into the Emerging Markets team.

What makes a good stock?

A good stock for me is one that is underpriced. And a good company doesn’t always make a good stock – valuation matters. That could translate into a strong company whose long-term earnings and cash-flow potential are undervalued by broader markets. That could also mean a mediocre company that investors have abandoned to the point where valuations are extremely low (and extremely attractive).

Sometimes the most interesting opportunities are companies with problems that the market is treating too pessimistically. When the valuations sink, the risk-reward can become irresistibly compelling. I manage Robeco’s African Equities strategy, where we often observe companies trading at significant discounts to other regions. While not flawless, they can deliver attractive returns based on an initially low starting valuation.

A good stock for me is one that is underpriced… that could mean a mediocre company… with extremely low valuations Cornelis Vlooswijk
Cornelis Vlooswijk
Portfolio Manager

What’s your biggest lesson learned over the years?

If something looks too good to be true, do more due diligence. While markets aren’t perfectly efficient, they aren’t stupid either. When a company seems fine, but its share price is falling, don’t assume the market is wrong. There may be information circulating, perhaps locally, that isn’t widely known; this is especially true in emerging markets. That doesn’t necessarily mean insider trading, but it does mean proceed with caution. Conversely, don’t get over-confident when something looks like an easy win.

Equity outlook: From positive to perilous

Emerging markets started strong in 2026, but momentum has stalled amid the Iran conflict. How do you see prospects for EM equities as we enter Q2?

It’s difficult to forecast equity markets overall because so much depends on how the Iran war will evolve. However, I do believe the outlook for emerging markets is significantly better than for developed ones. First, EM companies and economies are starting from such a low base, they can easily generate real growth, even in challenging environments. Similarly, valuations are also much lower, which makes EM companies relatively more attractive.

The picture is a bit more nuanced for Africa. Higher oil import costs and lower metal prices are negative for South Africa but share prices have corrected sharply since the conflict began. However, this has created compellingly low valuations and nice re-entry points. We are cautious on Egypt due to the war. It had strong momentum before the conflict but is now vulnerable due to its dependence on Gulf States for financing, which is reflected in very low valuations. In contrast, as oil and gas exporters Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Mozambique and a few other African nations, are benefiting as energy prices rise. The war is not good for any region, but Africa is somewhat better insulated than Europe or parts of Asia.

Emerging Markets Equities D USD

performance ytd (28-2)
17,14%
Performance 3y (28-2)
22,71%
morningstar (28-2)
4 / 5
SFDR (28-2)
Article 8
Pago de dividendos (28-2)
No
Ver el fondo
Rentabilidades pasadas no garantizan resultados futuros. El valor de las inversiones puede fluctuar.Anualizado (para periodos superiores a un año). Las rentabilidades son netas de comisiones, basadas en los precios de transacción.

Which trends and opportunities are you most excited about in emerging markets?

The biggest opportunities today are clearly in Africa. After more than a decade of disappointing returns (2011-2024), except for South Africa, global investors largely abandoned it. After years of poor economic policies, countries such as Ghana and Nigeria have implemented reforms which are backed by commodity tailwinds – gold for Ghana and oil for Nigeria.

With an improving macro backdrop and low valuations, businesses operating in these economies are well-positioned for earnings growth. Demographic trends such as population growth and an expanding youth base create natural demand for products and services. Adoption of mobile telecom and mobile money payments are illustrative examples. Companies like MTN and Vodacom combine strong technology with exposure to fast-growing markets such as Egypt, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Mobile money is creating huge efficiency gains in areas where traditional banking infrastructure is limited.

What is the most misunderstood aspect of investing in EM equities?

Many DM investors still assume EM is low-tech and ‘behind’; but innovation isn’t confined to developed markets. Emerging markets can dominate major parts of the supply chains across industries. Take semiconductors; Taiwan’s TSMC produces the world’s most advanced processors, and two of the three global leaders in high-bandwidth memory, SK Hynix and Samsung, are based in Korea.

Many DM investors still assume EM is low-tech and ‘behind’; but innovation isn’t confined to developed markets Cornelis Vlooswijk
Cornelis Vlooswijk
Portfolio Manager

What are your favorite EM countries right now?

After the recent correction, many Korean companies stand out given strong earnings potential that is still underappreciated, especially in tech-related sectors. Nigeria and Ghana are also strong picks, driven by meaningful economic reforms and commodity tailwinds.

If you could meet any historical figure who influenced the financial world, who would it be and what would you ask?

I would choose Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. His work brought discipline and rationality to markets that were far more speculative in his time. More specifically, I would ask him, ‘at what valuation discount would he prefer emerging market equities over US equities?’ He valued business quality and low valuations so it would be interesting to know how he would weigh those factors today, especially given how expensive US markets have become relative to EM.

*The companies named on this page are for illustrative purposes only. No inference can be made on the future development of the company. These are not buy, sell or hold recommendations.

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