荷宝策略师
概括
- 五年展望报告揭示发达国家政府债券的吸引力减弱。
- 新兴市场的股票和债券更受青睐。
- 无论是基本情景、看空情景还是看多情景，通胀和增长前景都将是决定性因素。
今年报告的主角是神话中的擎天大力神“阿特拉斯”（Atlas）。他代表着人工智能领域的企业创新以及众多高回报的投资机遇，这些力量共同支撑起了全球经济的未来。阿特拉斯不仅象征着对世界的支撑，也预示着对主要大类资产回报率的积极影响。在我们设定的基本情境下，全球各大洲的经济和政治格局不会像看空情景那样进一步分化，也不会像看多情景那样紧密相连。
荷宝多元资产解决方案策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“在这个新时代，越来越多的资本所有者开始思考利益相关者福祉与股东利润的结合。我们的五年展望正是对这个新时代的映射。自由市场经济的效率正在下降，极端个人主义已经成为历史。今天的投资者正在寻求盈利能力和更广泛的社会影响之间和谐平衡。”
荷宝可持续多元资产解决方案量化策略总监Laurens Swinkels指出：“面对当前市场扭曲和政府干预的增加，要实现超额收益，投资策略就更加依赖深入的研究。我们的报告强调了在这一动态变化的环境中进行战略投资的必要性。
基本情景：阿特拉斯崛起（概率50%）
在此情景下，荷宝预计，全球经济将在人工智能的引领下实现温和而稳健的增长，美国人均GDP预计每年增长1.75%。而其他发达经济体，尤其是欧洲，有望与美国的增长步伐保持一致，进而推动全球经济的均衡增长。随着资本配置效率的提升，投资机会预计将得到改善。全球通胀率预计将维持在2.5%左右的平均水平，而中性利率可能会超出央行的预期。
看空情景：阿特拉斯分化（概率30%）
在这一情景设想下，美国经济可能因政府赤字的持续高企和全球权力格局的变化而难以摆脱通胀和滞胀的困境。通胀率可能会居高不下，对整体经济稳定构成威胁。这一情境暗示，尽管初期看似在抗击通胀方面取得了进展，但整体经济稳定性将会面临重大挑战，类似于历史上的高通胀时期。
看多情景：阿特拉斯互联（概率20%）
在最乐观情境下，荷宝预计，人工智能的快速应用将显著提高生产率，年增长率达到2.25%，推动经济强劲增长，实际GDP增长接近3%，通胀率则保持在2%左右。地缘政治稳定性的提升和资本深化的增加将有助于营造一个有利的投资环境，使各国央行能够维持中性政策利率。
预期回报
投资影响
基本情景：无风险利率预计将会上升，导致多数大类资产的风险溢价下降。新兴市场股票或将提供最高的回报率，以美元计价的年回报率预计为8.25%，其次是发达市场股票的回报率预计为7.5%，以及新兴市场债券的回报率预计为7%。在信用债市场，投资级企业债券的未来五年收益率预计为5.75%，高收益债券的收益率将上升至6%。在基本情境下，房地产的年均回报率预计为6.5%，而大宗商品的年均回报率预计为5.75%。
看空情景：在通胀和局势动荡的背景下，投资回报可能会降低，尤其是高风险投资。
看多情景：随着人工智能提升生产率，新兴市场债券和大宗商品的回报率可能会高于平均水平，而其他资产类别也有望表现出色。
专题：
本报告还探讨了其他可能影响未来投资政策的重要议题，包括气候转型融资、资产泡沫的破裂风险、“基本面量化”主题投资的好处等。
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