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22-05-2020 | インサイト

Is value investing dead?

  • Steef  Bergakker
    Steef
    Bergakker
    Senior Portfolio Manager

In order to make any sense at all of our complex world, we divide things into all kinds of categories based on common characteristics. The same applies in the world of investment. Investors distinguish between different sectors, countries, small and large listed companies, value and growth stocks, and so on.

Sometimes, this categorization yields useful and beneficial insights; sometimes it doesn't. And sometimes a change in our environment causes a categorization that has long been useful and beneficial to lose its value.

For decades, the distinction between value and growth stocks was highly valuable. Value stocks, usually defined as shares with a low price-to-book valuation, generated substantially higher long-term returns than growth stocks with a high price-to-book valuation.

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US value versus growth, relative performance (log values)

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Ibbotson, Fama-French

The difference was so great and statistically significant that the value characteristic was considered a systematic factor for determining long-term returns.

Has the tide turned?

But since the global financial crisis of 2008/09 and, in fact, slightly before that, growth stocks have been doing much better than their value counterparts. Particularly in the last few years, a chasm has opened between the returns of value and growth stocks – to the benefit of the latter category.

This long period of value underperformance has seriously damaged confidence in the validity of the value factor. So, isn't it about time we concluded that value investing is dead?

If we look at the above graph, in which a rising line indicates value stock outperformance and a falling one growth stock outperformance, we can see that value strategies have more frequently shown long periods of extreme underperformance in the past. This was the case in both the 1930s and the 1990s.

Yet every occurrence was followed by a spectacular comeback. Therefore, it’s too early to write off value stocks. On the other hand, we should definitely not rule out that the change in circumstances this time around is so great that value stocks have indeed permanently lost their ability to generate outperformance.

Book value

A growing problem is, for example, that the book value - the traditional workhorse of value strategies - is becoming less representative of the value of modern companies’ production resources. Increasingly, these comprise intangible assets such as licenses, copyrights, patents, trademarks, brand names and customer data - which, unlike factories and machines, are difficult to quantify in traditional book values.

Another potential problem is that in the past, value strategies have delivered their best performance in times of high economic growth and rising prices. In other words, when growth was not scarce. In periods of low economic growth and inflation – such as the 1930s, the period since the global financial crisis, and economic recessions – growth stocks usually did much better.

The past century, especially the second half, was a period of exceptional economic growth. There was a sixfold increase in the world's population and yet the average per capita income across the globe grew significantly. If, as various economists expect, we are heading towards a period of lower but historically more normal economic growth, investors may remain charmed by growth stocks for much longer.

More art than science

That demonstrates that what we are dealing with is a case of tea leaf reading. Neither a miraculous recovery nor a final curtain can be ruled out. And this is the sore spot of the financial profession: we are very good at finding, testing and extrapolating correlations from the past, but not overly successful at devising robust, theoretical explanations for why and exactly under which conditions these correlations occur.

Basically, forecasting with some degree of precision is still beyond our reach. Investing is still more of an art than a science.

重要事項

当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。

ご契約に際しては、必要に応じ専門家にご相談の上、最終的なご判断はお客様ご自身でなさるようお願い致します。

運用を行う資産の評価額は、組入有価証券等の価格、金融市場の相場や金利等の変動、及び組入有価証券の発行体の財務状況による信用力等の影響を受けて変動します。また、外貨建資産に投資する場合は為替変動の影響も受けます。運用によって生じた損益は、全て投資家の皆様に帰属します。したがって投資元本や一定の運用成果が保証されているものではなく、投資元本を上回る損失を被ることがあります。弊社が行う金融商品取引業に係る手数料または報酬は、締結される契約の種類や契約資産額により異なるため、当資料において記載せず別途ご提示させて頂く場合があります。具体的な手数料または報酬の金額・計算方法につきましては弊社担当者へお問合せください。

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商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会

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