Robeco logo

免責聲明

1. 一般事項

請細閱以下資料。

此網站由Robeco Hong Kong Limited(「荷寶」)擬備及刊發,荷寶是獲香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會發牌從事第1類(證券交易)、第4類(就證券提供意見)及第9類(資產管理)受規管活動的企業。荷寶不持有客戶資產,並受到發牌條件所規限。荷寶在擴展至零售業務之前,必須先得到證監會的批准。本網頁未經證券及期貨事務監察委員會或香港的任何監管當局審閱。

2. 風險披露聲明

Robeco Capital Growth Funds以其特定的投資政策或其他特徵作識別,請小心閱讀有關Robeco Capital Growth Funds的風險:

  • 部份基金可涉及投資、市場、股票投資、流動性、交易對手、證券借貸及外幣風險及小型及/或中型公司的相關風險。

  • 部份基金所涉及投資於新興市場的風險包括政治、經濟、法律、規管、市場、結算、執行交易、交易對手及貨幣風險。

  • 部份基金可透過合格境外機構投資者("QFII")及/或 人民幣合格境外機構投資者 ("RQFII")及/或 滬港通計劃直接投資於中國A股,當中涉及額外的結算、規管、營運、交易對手及流動性風險。

  • 就分派股息類別,部份基金可能從資本中作出股息分派。股息分派若直接從資本中撥付,這代表投資者獲付還或提取原有投資本金的部份金額或原有投資應佔的任何資本收益,該等分派可能導致基金的每股資產淨值即時減少。

  • 部份基金投資可能集中在單一地區/單一國家/相同行業及/或相同主題營運。 因此,基金的價值可能會較為波動。

  • 部份基金使用的任何量化技巧可能無效,可能對基金的價值構成不利影響。

  • 除了投資、市場、流動性、交易對手、證券借貸、(反向)回購協議及外幣風險,部份基金可涉及定息收入投資有關的風險包括信貨風險、利率風險、可換股債券的風險、資產抵押證券的的風險、投資於非投資級別或不獲評級證券的風險及投資於未達投資級別主權證券的風險。

  • 部份基金可大量運用金融衍生工具。荷寶環球消費新趨勢股票可為對沖目的及為有效投資組合管理而運用金融衍生工具。運用金融衍生工具可涉及較高的交易對手、流通性及估值的風險。在不利的情況下,部份基金可能會因為使用金融衍生工具而承受重大虧損(甚至損失基金資產的全部)。

  • 荷寶歐洲高收益債券可涉及投資歐元區的風險。

  • 投資者在Robeco Capital Growth Funds的投資有可能大幅虧損。投資者應該參閱Robeco Capital Growth Funds之銷售文件內的資料﹙包括潛在風險﹚,而不應只根據這文件內的資料而作出投資。


3. 當地的法律及銷售限制

此網站僅供“專業投資者”進接(其定義根據香港法律《證券及期貨條例》(第571章)和/或《證券及期貨(專業投資者)規則》(第571D章)所載)。此網站並非以在禁止刊發或提供此網站(基於該人士的國籍、居住地或其他原因)的任何司法管轄區內的任何人士為對象。受該等禁例限制的人士或並非上述訂明的人士不得登入此網站。登入此網站的人士需注意,他們有責任遵守所有當地法例及法規。一經登入此網站及其任何網頁,即確認閣下已同意並理解以下使用條款及法律資料。若閣下不同意以下條款及條件,不得登入此網站及其任何網頁。

此網站所載的資料僅供資料參考用途。

在此網站發表的任何資料或意見,概不構成購買、出售或銷售任何投資,參與任何其他交易或提供任何投資建議或服務的招攬、要約或建議。此網站所載的資料並不構成投資意見或建議,擬備時並無考慮可能取得此網站的任何特定人士的個別目標、財務狀況或需要。投資於荷寶產品前,必須先細閱相關的法律文件,例如管理法規、基金章程、最新的年度及半年度報告,所有該等文件可於www.robeco.com/hk/zh免費下載,亦可向荷寶於香港的辦事處免費索取。

4. 使用此網站

有關資料建基於特定時間適用的若干假設、資料及條件,可隨時更改,毋需另行通知。儘管荷寶旨在提供準確、完整及最新的資料,並獲取自相信為可靠的資料來源,但概不就該等資料的準確性或完整性作出明示或暗示的保證或聲明。

登入此網站的人士需為其資料的選擇和使用負責。

5. 投資表現

概不保證將可達到任何投資產品的投資目標。並不就任何投資產品的表現或投資回報作出陳述或承諾。閣下的投資價值可能反覆波動。荷寶投資產品的資產價值可能亦會因投資政策及/或金融市場的發展而反覆波動。過去所得的業績並不保證未來回報。此網站所載的往績、預估或預測不應被視為未來表現的指示或保證,概不就未來表現作出任何明示或暗示的陳述或保證。基金的表現數據以月底的交易價格為基礎,並以總回報基礎及股息再作投資計算。對比基準的回報數據顯示未計管理及/或表現費前的投資管理業績;基金回報包括股息再作投資,並以基準估值時的價格及匯率計算的資產淨值為基礎。

投資涉及風險。往績並非未來表現的指引。準投資者在作出任何投資決定前,應細閱相關發售文件所載的條款及條件,特別是投資政策及風險因素。投資者應確保其完全明白與基金相關的風險,並應考慮其投資目標及風險承受程度。投資者應注意,基金股份的價格及收益(如有)可能反覆波動,並可能在短時間內大幅變動,投資者或無法取回其投資於基金的金額。若有任何疑問,請諮詢獨立財務及有關專家的意見。

6. 第三者網站

本網站含有來自第三方的資料或第三方經營的網站連結,而其中部分該等公司與荷寶沒有任何聯繫。跟隨連結登入任何其他此網站以外的網頁或第三方網站的風險,應由跟隨該連結的人士自行承擔。荷寶並無審閱此網站所連結或提述的任何網站,概不就該等網站的內容或所提供的產品、服務或其他項目作出推許或負上任何責任。荷寶概不就使用或依賴第三方網站所載的資料而導致的任何虧損或損毀負上法侓責任,包括(但不限於)任何虧損或利益或任何其他直接或間接的損毀。 此網站以外的網頁或第三方網站皆旨在作參考之用。

7. 責任限制

荷寶及(潛在的)其他網站資料供應商概不就此網站內容或其所載的資料或建議負責,而該等內容、資料或建議可予更改,毋需另行通知。

荷寶並無責任確保及保證此網站的功能將不受干擾或並無失誤。荷寶概不就有關荷寶(交易)服務電郵訊息的後果承擔任何責任,該等電郵訊息可能無法接收或發出、損毀、不正確接收或發出或並無準時接收或發出。

荷寶亦不就因登入及使用此網站而可能導致的任何虧損或損毀負責。

8. 知識產權

所有版權、專利、知識產權和其他財產,以及有關此網站資料的授權均由荷寶持有及獲取。該等權利不會轉授予查閱有關資料的人士。

9. 私隠

荷寶保證將會根據現行的資料保障法例,以保密方式處理登入此網站的人士的數據。除非荷寶需按法律責任行事,否則在未經登入此網站的人士許可,不會向第三方提供該等數據。 請於我們的私隱及Cookie政策 中查找更多詳情。

10. 適用法律

此網站受香港法律監管及據此解釋。因此網站導致或有關此網站的所有爭議應交由香港法庭作出專有裁決。

如果您已閱讀並理解本頁並同意上述免責聲明以及同意荷寶收集和使用您的個人資料,用於私隱及Cookie政策 所列的收集和使用個人資料的目的(包括用於直接推廣荷寶的產品或服務),請點擊“我同意”按鈕。否則,請點擊“我不同意”離開本網站。


我不同意

28-05-2024 · 市場觀點

Alternative asset managers primed for growth

We believe listed alternative asset managers are primed for growth with the global savings pool set to surge as an aging global population plans for retirement.

    作者

  • Patrick Lemmens - Portfolio Manager

    Patrick Lemmens

    Portfolio Manager

  • Koos Burema - Portfolio Manager

    Koos Burema

    Portfolio Manager

  • Michiel van Voorst - Portfolio Manager

    Michiel van Voorst

    Portfolio Manager

概要

  1. An aging global population demands a deeper global savings pool

  2. Alternative asset managers will be one of the key beneficiaries

  3. Re-accelerating capital markets flywheel is a catalyst

Alternative asset managers (AAMs) enjoyed rapid growth in assets in the decade to 2020, especially in private equity, but the exit from zero interest rate policies in the US and Europe has prompted slowing asset accumulation and tepid stock market performance in listed AAMs, prompting some skepticism over the future return profile of the whole sub-sector.1

We don’t share that concern. In the short term, we think fund raising is likely to get easier as cash flows recover on a revival in capital markets activity, providing long-awaited openings for monetization. Within the sector itself we believe there is quiet confidence on the outlook for alternative assets. This is confirmed by IPO activity with CVC Capital Partners’ recent successful listing in Amsterdam (April 2024), following stock market debuts by rivals EQT in Stockholm in 2019, and Bridgepoint in London in 2021. Discussions with leading global players also echo this positive outlook with robust flows from pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and increasingly high net wealth and private banking customers reported. In our view, this leaves a window of opportunity to increase exposure in listed AAMs before any relaxation of US monetary policy provides an obvious catalyst.

In the longer term, we think there is structural strength in the alternative assets sector’s position within the asset management industry, as global demographics increase the total savings pool, and investors look for enhanced returns through diversification.

The long-term savings gap will increase demand for asset management solutions

Aging Finance is one of the key trends we focus on in our New World Financials strategy, alongside Digital Finance and Emerging Finance. The global population is aging and there is a significant savings deficit. With fewer workers and inadequate savings, traditional pay-as-you-go systems for pensions and healthcare are increasingly unsustainable. The World Economic Forum predicts a USD 400 trillion savings gap by 2050 in key economies, including the US, Japan, and the UK, despite their substantial pension funds. We see the asset accumulation needed to fill this gap as a long-term growth opportunity and one of the strongest drivers of the Aging Finance trend. While the life and health insurance sector will be key beneficiaries, especially in emerging economies, we will also see increased demand for asset management solutions that can help manage and deploy the surge in savings that we expect.

Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, high net wealth individuals and many other (retail) investors are increasingly searching for long-term oriented, high yielding investments with relatively low volatility. AAMs offer a wide range of solutions that fit this profile and can earn high and predictable fee levels, which opens up interesting investment opportunities for us.

Confidence that alternative assets will flourish in the coming decades is reflected within the industry

Alternative assets are in a sweet spot

Within traditional asset management we have seen a shift from active to passive investments, alongside pressure on management and distribution fees for both. More recently there have even been some outflows from passive investments, while active asset managers remain in a tough battlefield for market share. In contrast, AAMs have a clearer long-term growth narrative with traditional private equity, alternative credit, infrastructure, long-term capital and green finance all expected to see assets under management rise in the coming years. This is shown in Figure 1, where the private asset category is expected to grow revenues three times (9% CAGR) faster than the next highest growth categories (passive and solutions).

Figure 1: Private assets enjoying rapid growth in AuM (in USD tln) and revenue (in USD bln) CAGR 21-26E

Figure 1: Private assets enjoying rapid growth in AuM (in USD tln) and revenue (in USD bln) CAGR 21-26E

Source: December 2023, Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman.

The predictable cashflow streams to match the longer-term nature of liabilities are particularly attractive to pension funds, while other types of investors seek diversification and opportunities unavailable in public markets.

Confidence that alternative assets will flourish in the coming decades is reflected within the industry, with KKR quoting Preqin data at its 2024 investor day estimating that AuM will grow at a 12% annual CAGR to USD 24 trillion by 2028. KKR says investment in infrastructure is a particularly attractive opportunity both to enable the energy transition, the build out of the digital world and more broadly decarbonization. This all means investments in many different infrastructure sectors such as transportation, utilities, energy, digital and industrial. KKR estimates a total of USD 100 tln of infrastructure investments until 2040.

Dry powder across the asset class is high

Another feature of the current landscape is that there is ample cash ready to deploy. Despite subdued capital markets, recent years have seen strong capital raisings at leading managers for credit, infrastructure, and permanent capital vehicles (insurance, private wealth). Firms like Brookfield, Carlyle, KKR, CVC and Ares have had impressive fund raisings in a difficult environment. In the total alternative assets space encompassing buyout funds, private credit, venture capital real estate and infrastructure, Bain & Company estimates2 there is USD 3.9 trillion ready to deploy.

The biggest single portion of this is the uninvested capital pool at buyout funds, which has grown to historic highs with a record USD 1.2 trillion ready to invest at the end of 2023, says Bain. Difficulties exiting have also been manifest, with buyout-backed exits coming in at USD 345 billion globally in 2023 according to Bain, a decade low and a 44% decline from 2022. Meanwhile, interest rates seem to be stuck around the 4-5% levels. However, with an improving capital markets background in 2024 and interest rates likely to fall at some point, the whole industry is looking more interesting. Though with elevated valuations, you need to make clear choices in terms of whom to invest in based on franchise quality, the ability to raise, deploy and exit a fund, and relative valuations.

This is likely to lead to an even more select group of winners emerging among the already small group of around 20 leading alternative asset investors, which includes Blackstone, KKR, Ares, EQT, and Partners Group.

Private credit to benefit as banks suffer Basel 3 squeeze

Next to traditional private equity, private credit is the largest alternative asset category encompassing securitization, leveraged finance, asset-backed finance and commercial real estate. An important factor driving growth is tougher Basel 3 capital rules which are forcing large US banks to set aside more capital. Estimates are for an additional USD 2 of capital for every USD 100 of risk-weighted assets, which means that US banks need to raise equity capital by an estimated 16%.

Private credit can step into the void

This is good news for AAMs specialized in private credit as they can step into the void. They have two main advantages versus banks and insurers: 1) they do not have to hold capital against the credits as they deploy external capital in fund structures; 2) they typically can operate much faster than banks, insurers and loan syndicates, delivering faster and customized solutions to lenders. According to Preqin Pro, private credit will roughly double from 2023 to 2028 (from USD 1.4 trillion to almost USD 3 trillion of assets) while Morgan Stanley estimates that AAMs will take an increasing share in an overall addressable private credit market of USD 32 trillion (with USD 1.4 trillion representing only a 4.4% share today). Macquarie, Intermediate Capital Group, Ares, Apollo and KKR are some of the leading and best positioned players given their breadth and scale of private credit opportunities, deep origination funnels, and access to permanent capital vehicles like insurance company balance sheets

Large AAMs pivot to carry income to compensate talent

We have seen cost pressures to be relatively constant as talent in the alternative asset management sector is, and has been, quite expensive. Significantly, though, the larger asset managers are increasingly paying compensation from carry income. Carry income comes from the revenues originating from the selling of companies at a profit to the original investments made. Many AAMs increased the earnings coming from more highly regarded and rewarded management income by moving a part of the total compensation expense to carry income which is awarded with a significantly lower market multiple. This structural move will underpin higher valuations for leading AAMs in our view. It delivers a larger part of carry income to the investment partners who appreciate carry income more than (equity) investors.

Capital markets are coming to life

We currently see two developments which are clearly positive for the alternative asset industry. The flywheel of capital markets is starting to spin around with M&A and IPO activity coming back to life after two years of inactivity. M&A activity was up 30% at the end of April compared to the same period in 2023 according to EY.3 This is also evident in Dealogic deal volumes, showing a recovery from early 2023 levels.

Figure 2: M&A activity is recovering

Figure 2: M&A activity is recovering

Source: Dealogic, JP Morgan, Robeco, 31 March 2024.

This should help to return capital to investors which is a pre-requisite for raising new funds. Another potential catalyst would be falling longer-term interest rates. The move from zero interest rates to non-zero has surely helped to re-activate markets. Regardless, companies which were lending during the zero interest rate period are facing a debt maturity wall. In private credit, this could lead to problems as, with higher interest rates, companies need more equity to refinance existing loans. Fortunately (private) equity investors have so far been willing to provide additional equity. A clear positive would be if central banks cut interest rates which would also lead to longer-term interest rates declining with reduced inflation expectations. Even more advantageous however would be the move to an upward sloping yield curve, which provides the best backdrop for investing in AAMs as well as life insurers.

Conclusion

Alternative asset management, including private equity, infrastructure investments, private real estate investments and private credit, has strong growth opportunities for both assets under management as well as revenues, as the sustainability of fee levels tends to be very high. Finding the right investments in the AAM space means you need to look at historical track records and valuation, which also involves calculating net present value of current and potential future carry. You need the ability to source new capital, exit existing investments, and, crucially, manage investments to achieve better operational results, as financial engineering is not enough to earn adequate returns. We believe a select group of global AAMs will be able to capture the lion’s share of the total (and growing) available revenue pool, and our New World Financials strategy has been increasing its allocation to this part of the asset management industry in the past 12 months.

Footnotes

1 Is private equity actually worth it? – Financial Times – 5 March, 2024
2 Global Private Equity Report 2024 – Bain & Company
3 “‘There’s money everywhere’: Milken conference-goers look for a dealmaking revival” – Financial Times 10 May, 2024

獲取最新市場觀點

訂閱我們的電子報,時刻把握投資資訊和專家分析。

掌握新形勢

Important information

The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission ("SFC") in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. This document has been distributed by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (‘Robeco’). Robeco is regulated by the SFC in Hong Kong. This document has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the recipient and is for information purposes only. Any reproduction or distribution of this documentation, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Robeco, is prohibited. By accepting this documentation, the recipient agrees to the foregoing This document is intended to provide the reader with information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell certain securities or investment products. Investment decisions should only be based on the relevant prospectus and on thorough financial, fiscal and legal advice. Please refer to the relevant offering documents for details including the risk factors before making any investment decisions. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Investment Involves risks. Historical returns are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect Robeco’s expectations for the future. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance.