Is the worst behind us?
The phrase ‘green shoots’ is popping up everywhere in the last couple of days. Driven by better-than-expected macroeconomic data out of China, the narrative in markets has quickly changed from pricing in a more realistic probability of a recession to pricing in a rebound in economic momentum. Germany’s expected GDP growth will be one of the key factors to watch in determining if the worst is behind us. I do believe GDP growth will start to improve from here, helping the export-driven German economy, but the strength of this rebound is still a bit difficult to grasp. This could lead to surprises both on the upside and the downside. Equity markets, however, seem to favor the former over the latter.
As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
Previous editions of the daily sketch can be found on my personal financial markets blog. All graphics provided are collected from Bloomberg data and public websites. They do not always reflect my personal opinion and may also not necessarily reflect the opinion of Robeco. Please cite all references or quote the original source if replicating content.