Head of Global Macro and Portfolio Manager
• 四半期アウトルック
債券アウトルック：勇猛果敢なリスク市場
市場では、米国の金融環境緩和に対する楽観的な見方を背景に、リスク資産を勇猛果敢に買い進める動きが強まり、潜在的なリスク要因が軽視されているように思われます。
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Strategist
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Summary
- 勇猛果敢なリスク市場はリフレ・サイクルの新たな局面の到来を確信
- イールドカーブの的を絞ったスティープナーを選好、クレジットよりSSA債と厳選された新興国債券を優先
- ユーロ圏国債市場では仏国債と伊国債の序列が当然のように逆転
ロベコでは、来年に入ってもしばらくの間は米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の利下げが続くと予想する一方で、リスク資産の割高感にも注意を払っています。実際のところ、クレジット・スプレッドはタイトな水準で推移しているため、失敗が許される余地は依然として小さく、ベータを保守的な水準に抑えるべき理由は十分に存在します。
前回の四半期アウトルックでは、雇用関連指標の悪化を受けて、FRBは9月に利下げに踏み切ると主張しました。実際、関税政策に伴うコスト高を背景にインフレの上振れリスクが高まり、政治的圧力によって中央銀行の独立性に対する懸念が強まる中でも、雇用ペースの鈍化を受けてFRBは予防的措置を講じました。
今後を展望すると、関税と雇用に関連するショックが、米国の経済成長見通しに対する下押し要因として残存しています。その一方で、明るい材料に注目すると、米国では、AIブーム、今後予定される減税措置、株式市場の力強いセンチメントが、経済成長を引き続き下支えしています。このため、景気後退入りは引き続きメインシナリオではないと考えます。
米国以外の地域に目を向けると、欧州と日本の経済は予想よりも堅調に推移しています。南欧諸国の経済が底堅さを発揮する一方で、ドイツでは防衛費とインフラ支出の増額を背景に経済成長が上向く見通しです。欧州中央銀行（ECB）の金融政策はもはや景気抑制的ではなくなり、当面は利下げ休止局面に入ると見られます。
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