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1. 一般事項

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  • 部份基金可涉及投資、市場、股票投資、流動性、交易對手、證券借貸及外幣風險及小型及/或中型公司的相關風險。

  • 部份基金所涉及投資於新興市場的風險包括政治、經濟、法律、規管、市場、結算、執行交易、交易對手及貨幣風險。

  • 部份基金可透過合格境外機構投資者("QFII")及/或 人民幣合格境外機構投資者 ("RQFII")及/或 滬港通計劃直接投資於中國A股,當中涉及額外的結算、規管、營運、交易對手及流動性風險。

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  • 部份基金投資可能集中在單一地區/單一國家/相同行業及/或相同主題營運。 因此,基金的價值可能會較為波動。

  • 部份基金使用的任何量化技巧可能無效,可能對基金的價值構成不利影響。

  • 除了投資、市場、流動性、交易對手、證券借貸、(反向)回購協議及外幣風險,部份基金可涉及定息收入投資有關的風險包括信貨風險、利率風險、可換股債券的風險、資產抵押證券的的風險、投資於非投資級別或不獲評級證券的風險及投資於未達投資級別主權證券的風險。

  • 部份基金可大量運用金融衍生工具。荷寶環球消費新趨勢股票可為對沖目的及為有效投資組合管理而運用金融衍生工具。運用金融衍生工具可涉及較高的交易對手、流通性及估值的風險。在不利的情況下,部份基金可能會因為使用金融衍生工具而承受重大虧損(甚至損失基金資產的全部)。

  • 荷寶歐洲高收益債券可涉及投資歐元區的風險。

  • 投資者在Robeco Capital Growth Funds的投資有可能大幅虧損。投資者應該參閱Robeco Capital Growth Funds之銷售文件內的資料﹙包括潛在風險﹚,而不應只根據這文件內的資料而作出投資。


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投資涉及風險。往績並非未來表現的指引。準投資者在作出任何投資決定前,應細閱相關發售文件所載的條款及條件,特別是投資政策及風險因素。投資者應確保其完全明白與基金相關的風險,並應考慮其投資目標及風險承受程度。投資者應注意,基金股份的價格及收益(如有)可能反覆波動,並可能在短時間內大幅變動,投資者或無法取回其投資於基金的金額。若有任何疑問,請諮詢獨立財務及有關專家的意見。

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18-01-2023 · 市場觀點

Despite crypto winter, Digital Asset projects are still thriving

Investors should focus on the disruptive potential of the blockchain-based ecosystem in finance and the wider economy, not speculation in cryptocurrencies.

    作者

  • Annalisa Piva - Equity Analyst

    Annalisa Piva

    Equity Analyst

  • Michiel van Voorst - Portfolio Manager

    Michiel van Voorst

    Portfolio Manager

  • Patrick Lemmens - Portfolio Manager

    Patrick Lemmens

    Portfolio Manager

概要

  1. From crypto winter to regulatory spring

  2. Digital Assets starting a long-term innovation cycle

  3. Real use cases solving real-world problems

Cryptocurrency prices crashed in 2022 as tighter global financial conditions impacted the higher risk portion of capital markets, attracting huge media coverage and encouraging some investors to dismiss Digital Assets as a purely speculative phenomenon.

The Digital Assets ecosystem is certainly used to a great deal of volatility, and the implosions of the third largest stablecoin Terra USD (LUNA), crypto lending platforms Celsius and BlockFi, crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, and cryptocurrency exchange FTX are making it a hard crypto winter. The period from 2017 to 2022 has been reminiscent of the dot-com bubble where, amid steep user growth (Figure 1), investors gave massive valuations to business models which were speculative and sometimes fraudulent.

Figure 1: Cryptocurrency user adoption scenarios

Figure 1: Cryptocurrency user adoption scenarios

Source: World Bank, Crypto.com, Robeco estimates, 2021.

Underneath the surface, however, powerful trends are still developing based on the underlying blockchain technology, a record of transactions that does not require an external authority to validate the authenticity and integrity of data. This has become known as Web3 – a catch-all term for the vision of a new, better internet or the third generation of internet services – built upon the core concepts of decentralization, openness, and greater user utility. Blockchains, smart contracts and tokens are used to give power back to the users in the form of ownership. You could summarize it as: Web1 was read-only, Web2 is read-write, and Web3 will be read-write-own.

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訂閱我們的電子報,時刻把握投資資訊和專家分析。

掌握新形勢

Regulation to restore confidence in 2023

Progress in fixing the crypto regulatory gap has been slow, largely because regulation always lags innovation, and blockchain technology is relatively new. However, the 2022 cycle that saw the implosion of opaque and unnecessarily complex business models – which was aggravated by high leverage, lack of oversight, no separation of duties and poor risk management – put pressure on global regulators.

In 2023 we believe regulators will finally take concrete steps to restore confidence and legitimize the use of Digital Assets and the underlying technology in the wider economy. Regulatory standards should mitigate downside risks while promoting innovation – an aim that is embedded in most recent legislation drafts. In 2022 the EU published its plan to manage the crypto industry ('Markets in Crypto-Assets agreement' or MiCA) and in the US the White House presented recommendations from its research on the space ('First-Ever Comprehensive Framework for Responsible Development of Digital Assets').

It’s likely that Decentralized Finance (DeFi) players will soon be obliged to hold 100% reserves when issuing stablecoins, disclose more information about their balance sheets when engaging in lending, limit asset concentration, and promote more careful risk management. Clear regulation would boost user trust and engagement, augmented by developers building solutions to real-world problems.

Developer interest booming even as speculative interest collapses

Despite the turmoil in 2022, interest in crypto and Web3 is still growing. Although user activity is down, Coinbase reported 108 million verified users at the end of September, which is 48% more compared to September 2021. More significantly, Alchemy, a blockchain development platform empowering Web3 users, pointed out in their Web3 development report that downloads of two critically important Web3 libraries, Ethers.js and Web3.js, have almost tripled over the past year, reaching over 1.5 million per week (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Ethers.js and Web3.js downloads

Figure 2: Ethers.js and Web3.js downloads

Source: Web3 Developer Report, Q3 2022.

The fact that speculative interest in cryptocurrency has declined while development interest in the underlying technology is still growing fast is very positive, indicating a shift in focus from token prices to the underlying disruptive potential of blockchain.

Solving real-world problems

Beyond the headlines there is a quiet revolution going on as start-ups and corporations apply blockchain technology to change and enhance the way they do business. Examples include MGM applying smart-contracts to concert tickets with additional perks, JP Morgan processing more than USD 430 billion worth of tokenized intra-day repo transactions, and Walmart’s tokenizing its supply chain to reduce a specific food’s provenance tracking from 7 days to 2.2 seconds. We have provided a non-exhaustive list of current use cases in Figure 3 below.

Figure 3: Real-world use cases, diverse and expanding

Figure 3:  Real-world use cases, diverse and expanding

Source: Robeco analysis.

An interesting development from an investor perspective is the potential challenges to existing cloud computing and storage incumbents from Web3. While companies like Google, Amazon and Dropbox have been leaders in offering best-in-class cloud solutions, the Web3 era is enabling those services for a fraction of the price and exponentially higher efficiency and flexibility. What potentially makes this possible is a decentralized and open source cloud computing marketplace connecting those 'having' unused computing capacity with those 'needing' it, on the back of transparent, validated and tracked agreements among parties.

Creativity is the only limit

If an appropriate regulatory framework is set and energy around the space continues to persist, then creativity is the only limit on the potential of blockchain. In fact, while real-world issues that could be addressed are countless, the expression of its potential is still at a very early stage and it’s crucial to continue tracking developments. As part of our FinTech equity strategy, we invest in several companies that leverage blockchain technology using the ‘pick and shovel’ approach. There are few listed equity investments giving exposure to the rise of Digital Assets, but we are eagerly following developments and stand open to opportunities.

Download our whitepaper for a more in-depth analysis of the cryptocurrency crash, the regulatory outlook, real use cases for Blockchain, and a simple explanation of the key technologies and terminology in the Digital Assets ecosystem.

Download


Important information

The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission ("SFC") in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. This document has been distributed by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (‘Robeco’). Robeco is regulated by the SFC in Hong Kong. This document has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the recipient and is for information purposes only. Any reproduction or distribution of this documentation, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Robeco, is prohibited. By accepting this documentation, the recipient agrees to the foregoing This document is intended to provide the reader with information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell certain securities or investment products. Investment decisions should only be based on the relevant prospectus and on thorough financial, fiscal and legal advice. Please refer to the relevant offering documents for details including the risk factors before making any investment decisions. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Investment Involves risks. Historical returns are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect Robeco’s expectations for the future. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance.