什麼是趨勢?
訂閱我們的電子報,即可掌握所有最新的主題投資趨勢。

Natalie Falkman, senior portfolio manager for Robeco’s Circular Economy strategy, reflects on her personal investment journey and what makes the Circular Economy such a compelling theme for today’s markets.
Investing in equities is almost a national sport in Sweden. Some blame the high taxes for the fact that the horse track and the stock market are among the few places still left to get rich. My first investment was in high school and, unsurprisingly, it was in the Swedish telco equipment and mobile phone maker, Ericsson1 (a tech stock darling at the time).
I opened an account with the Swedish Young Shareholders' Association, a cheap way to buy and sell stocks. It was thrilling trying to understand as well as constantly track the performance variables of the companies that were eating all my pocket money. I’ve been hooked ever since.
A good stock, for me, is one I can see myself owning for a long time – a business that gets better as it grows, not just bigger. Good management is an outsized part of that. I am no expert in running any of the businesses I own, so when I invest in a company, I invest just as much in the people who run it. They shape the culture, and that matters a great deal for long-term success. That's why I like founder-led businesses, not empire builders.
Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. That includes asking questions – even when you appear to be the dumbest person in the room. Not asking can get expensive.
The circular economy is a theme, but it’s neither niche nor narrow. At its core, circularity is about efficiency – getting more out of less in every process, in every part of the economy. The earlier in the value chain it’s applied, the bigger the impact. As a result, the theme runs through every sector and region globally, and that is where the breadth comes from.
訂閱我們的電子報,即可掌握所有最新的主題投資趨勢。
The Circular Economy strategy’s mid- and small-cap focus is a true differentiator compared with many global products, including both regular global funds and environmental strategies. We have also shown that we can adapt and seize opportunities as they appear.
This year, an important source of alpha2 has been AI-bottleneck companies, many of them in Asia, while in 2022 – with Covid lockdowns still in place – the strategy had a clear defensive tilt. The strategy is broad, flexible and truly active; we are not governed by the large weights in global indices.
Lastly, I strongly believe the thematic lens works to our advantage. It strengthens our selection process by pointing us to companies that bring real value to their customers. Those are the companies that can profitably outgrow GDP over time.
Many mistakenly assume top-down regulation is a driver, but economics is actually a far more powerful incentive.
Being circular is the same as being smart and proactive. For example, in a world where resources are scarce and supply chains are regularly disrupted, recycling materials simply makes business sense. So, the move toward circularity is driven by companies themselves, striving to become more efficient, save money and build resilient supply chains.
A market driven by a handful of stocks is probably the toughest environment there is for a diversified, mid-cap-focused strategy like ours. During the years when the Magnificent Seven dominated, we still benefited from strong stock selection outside that limited cohort.
Understandably, relative returns lagged the MSCI World somewhat, but we were largely in line with, or ahead of, the global categories.
Fortunately, this year, market narrowing has been driven by a few themes rather than a few stocks. The AI trade is also broadening and our breadth of coverage across market caps, regions and sectors has meant we could embrace it rather than skirt around it. Early in the year, the AI enablers were companies showing exceptional profit growth at reasonable valuations. We leaned into that and benefited as the market gained confidence in their earnings strength.
Toward the end of H1, however, the AI theme was running hot. As investors grew more enthusiastic, they cared less about valuations and the risks that narrow positioning brings.
Not every AI company is worthy of investment, but AI demand is real, spreading, and delivering efficiency and innovation. That presents excellent opportunities for balanced exposure between AI enablers and AI adopters beyond the tech sector.
At the end of the day, we stay active but we also stay true to the theme. That combination keeps us adaptive, yet disciplined on the fundamental criteria a holding must meet to make it into the portfolio.
I tend to remember the worst but those also count toward lessons learned. One positive instance that springs to mind is my purchase of Nvidia* well before it became part of the Magnificent Seven. At the time it was largely a gaming company, but the pivot toward accelerated computing had begun, and the potential of GPUs beyond graphics was becoming visible.
Management is always part of my thesis, and here it was central: a founder-led business, with Jensen Huang seeing the shift years before the market did. I sold too early. Sometimes the hardest part of a great investment is simply holding on to it.
Howard Marks's book, ‘The Most Important Thing’, is instructive, as it challenges investors to go beyond consensus thinking, and consider second-level effects of trends or events. It also stresses the trap of human emotions that sometimes sabotage good investing. I still read his memos, which are great at cutting through the noise and distilling what really matters. If we met, I’d like to know how he tells the difference between being early and being wrong real-time, not in hindsight.
This was originally published in our Fundamental Equity Quarterly for Q4.
1 The companies named on this page are for illustrative purposes only. No inference can be made on the future development of the company. These are not buy, sell or hold recommendations.
2 Alpha refers to the excess return of an investment relative to a benchmark index and is a measure of performance.
本網站僅供《證券及期貨條例》(香港法例第571章)及其附屬法例所界定之專業投資者瀏覽及使用。 投資涉及風險。過往表現並不代表未來表現。本網站所載資料僅供參考之用,並不構成任何投資建議,亦非作出買賣任何證券或採納任何投資策略之要約或招攬。投資者不應僅憑本網站提供之資料作出投資決定,在作出任何投資決定前,應徵詢獨立意見(包括有關稅務影響之意見)。投資者應確保完全理解投資產品的相關風險,亦應考量自身投資目標及風險承受水平。投資乃閣下之個人決定。除非銷售投資產品的中介人已向閣下告知該投資產品適合閣下,並已解釋其符合閣下投資目標之原因,否則閣下不應投資。請參閱相關發售文件或其他法律文件,以獲取包括風險因素在內的進一步詳情。 本網站由荷寶投資管理香港有限公司發布,該公司受香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)規管(中央編號:APU851)。本網站未經證監會審閱。 無法保證任何投資產品可實現其投資目標。概不就任何投資產品之表現或投資回報作任何聲明或承諾。投資的價值或會波動。本網站所載過往表現、推算或預測,均不應視作未來表現之保證或指標,且概不提供任何明示或暗示之保證。本網站內容建基於相信為可靠之來源,惟因應資料傳遞技術特性及須採用多項數據來源(包括第三方內容),故概不保證其準確性。所述觀點僅乃截至上述日期,或會隨市況變化而改變,可予更改而毋須另行通知。該等意見可能有別於其他荷寶投資專業人士之意見。因使用本材料或當中所載任何評論、意見或估算而引致之直接、間接或相應損失,荷寶概不承擔法律責任。荷寶並無責任更新本網站或任何網站內容。未經荷寶事先書面許可,不得複製、分發或刊發本網站任何材料。 除非另有說明,資料來源:荷寶。
警告 — 有不法分子在網站及社交媒體上冒用荷寳 了解更多