訪談

Africa’s leading economies are the next EM opportunity

Cornelis Vlooswijk, senior portfolio manager for Robeco’s Emerging Markets Equities strategy, talks about his investment background, how he sees emerging markets in light of the Middle East conflict, and how Africa’s leading economies are positioned in 2026.

作者

    Portfolio Manager
    Sharolyn Reynard
    Investment Writer

熱門關鍵詞

概要

  1. EM companies are now better able to cope with challenging environments
  2. Innovation is burgeoning in EM
  3. Africa offers attractive prospects with an improving macro backdrop and low valuations

What originally got you into investing?

I’ve been interested in markets since my early teens as I watched my father, a retail investor, check share prices every evening when he came home from work. I became intrigued at how quickly share prices could move for seemingly no reason. I liked numbers and accounting and the competitive aspect of investing. It’s not a lottery – you’re constantly challenged to gather information, assess it, and make calculated decisions that are better (or faster) than others.

While at university, I joined the student investment association and studied economics and finance. After graduating, I moved to London to work in M&A and corporate finance. It was an interesting experience, but it confirmed for me that I preferred the dynamics of stock market investing. Markets move constantly and you have to stay sharp, informed, and decisive. I initially started with Robeco as part of a research joint venture with Rabobank, and in 2008 moved into the Emerging Markets team.

What makes a good stock?

A good stock for me is one that is underpriced. And a good company doesn’t always make a good stock – valuation matters. That could translate into a strong company whose long-term earnings and cash-flow potential are undervalued by broader markets. That could also mean a mediocre company that investors have abandoned to the point where valuations are extremely low (and extremely attractive).

Sometimes the most interesting opportunities are companies with problems that the market is treating too pessimistically. When the valuations sink, the risk-reward can become irresistibly compelling. I manage Robeco’s African Equities strategy, where we often observe companies trading at significant discounts to other regions. While not flawless, they can deliver attractive returns based on an initially low starting valuation.

A good stock for me is one that is underpriced… that could mean a mediocre company… with extremely low valuations Cornelis Vlooswijk
Cornelis Vlooswijk
Portfolio Manager

Discover emerging opportunities

For investors focused on long-term investing with real diversification, EM exposure is critical.

Emerging markets investing

What’s your biggest lesson learned over the years?

If something looks too good to be true, do more due diligence. While markets aren’t perfectly efficient, they aren’t stupid either. When a company seems fine, but its share price is falling, don’t assume the market is wrong. There may be information circulating, perhaps locally, that isn’t widely known; this is especially true in emerging markets. That doesn’t necessarily mean insider trading, but it does mean proceed with caution. Conversely, don’t get over-confident when something looks like an easy win.

Emerging markets started strong in 2026, but momentum has stalled amid the Iran conflict. How do you see prospects for EM equities as we enter Q2?

It’s difficult to forecast equity markets overall because so much depends on how the Iran war will evolve. However, I do believe the outlook for emerging markets is significantly better than for developed ones. First, EM companies and economies are starting from such a low base, they can easily generate real growth, even in challenging environments. Similarly, valuations are also much lower, which makes EM companies relatively more attractive.

The picture is a bit more nuanced for Africa. Higher oil import costs and lower metal prices are negative for South Africa but share prices have corrected sharply since the conflict began. However, this has created compellingly low valuations and nice re-entry points. We are cautious on Egypt due to the war. It had strong momentum before the conflict but is now vulnerable due to its dependence on Gulf States for financing, which is reflected in very low valuations. In contrast, as oil and gas exporters Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Mozambique and a few other African nations, are benefiting as energy prices rise. The war is not good for any region, but Africa is somewhat better insulated than Europe or parts of Asia.

Equity outlook: From positive to perilous

Which trends and opportunities are you most excited about in emerging markets?

The biggest opportunities today are clearly in Africa. After more than a decade of disappointing returns (2011-2024), except for South Africa, global investors largely abandoned it. After years of poor economic policies, countries such as Ghana and Nigeria have implemented reforms which are backed by commodity tailwinds – gold for Ghana and oil for Nigeria.

With an improving macro backdrop and low valuations, businesses operating in these economies are well-positioned for earnings growth. Demographic trends such as population growth and an expanding youth base create natural demand for products and services. Adoption of mobile telecom and mobile money payments are illustrative examples. Companies like MTN and Vodacom combine strong technology with exposure to fast-growing markets such as Egypt, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Mobile money is creating huge efficiency gains in areas where traditional banking infrastructure is limited.

What is the most misunderstood aspect of investing in EM equities?

Many DM investors still assume EM is low-tech and ‘behind’; but innovation isn’t confined to developed markets. Emerging markets can dominate major parts of the supply chains across industries. Take semiconductors; Taiwan’s TSMC produces the world’s most advanced processors, and two of the three global leaders in high-bandwidth memory, SK Hynix and Samsung, are based in Korea.

Many DM investors still assume EM is low-tech and ‘behind’; but innovation isn’t confined to developed markets Cornelis Vlooswijk
Cornelis Vlooswijk
Portfolio Manager

What are your favorite EM countries right now?

After the recent correction, many Korean companies stand out given strong earnings potential that is still underappreciated, especially in tech-related sectors. Nigeria and Ghana are also strong picks, driven by meaningful economic reforms and commodity tailwinds.

If you could meet any historical figure who influenced the financial world, who would it be and what would you ask?

I would choose Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. His work brought discipline and rationality to markets that were far more speculative in his time. More specifically, I would ask him, ‘at what valuation discount would he prefer emerging market equities over US equities?’ He valued business quality and low valuations so it would be interesting to know how he would weigh those factors today, especially given how expensive US markets have become relative to EM.

*The companies named on this page are for illustrative purposes only. No inference can be made on the future development of the company. These are not buy, sell or hold recommendations.

新興市場的新機會

訂閱我們的電子報,深入了解新興市場投資機會。

了解更多

重要資料

本網站僅供《證券及期貨條例》(香港法例第571章)及其附屬法例所界定之專業投資者瀏覽及使用。 投資涉及風險。過往表現並不代表未來表現。本網站所載資料僅供參考之用,並不構成任何投資建議,亦非作出買賣任何證券或採納任何投資策略之要約或招攬。投資者不應僅憑本網站提供之資料作出投資決定,在作出任何投資決定前,應徵詢獨立意見(包括有關稅務影響之意見)。投資者應確保完全理解投資產品的相關風險,亦應考量自身投資目標及風險承受水平。投資乃閣下之個人決定。除非銷售投資產品的中介人已向閣下告知該投資產品適合閣下,並已解釋其符合閣下投資目標之原因,否則閣下不應投資。請參閱相關發售文件或其他法律文件,以獲取包括風險因素在內的進一步詳情。 本網站由荷寶投資管理香港有限公司發布,該公司受香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(「證監會」)規管(中央編號:APU851)。本網站未經證監會審閱。 無法保證任何投資產品可實現其投資目標。概不就任何投資產品之表現或投資回報作任何聲明或承諾。投資的價值或會波動。本網站所載過往表現、推算或預測,均不應視作未來表現之保證或指標,且概不提供任何明示或暗示之保證。本網站內容建基於相信為可靠之來源,惟因應資料傳遞技術特性及須採用多項數據來源(包括第三方內容),故概不保證其準確性。所述觀點僅乃截至上述日期,或會隨市況變化而改變,可予更改而毋須另行通知。該等意見可能有別於其他荷寶投資專業人士之意見。因使用本材料或當中所載任何評論、意見或估算而引致之直接、間接或相應損失,荷寶概不承擔法律責任。荷寶並無責任更新本網站或任何網站內容。未經荷寶事先書面許可,不得複製、分發或刊發本網站任何材料。 除非另有說明,資料來源:荷寶。