Investment strategists most positive on equities

Investment strategists most positive on equities

19-01-2017 | インサイト

Investment experts Bob Homan (ING), Han Dieperink (Rabobank) and Gerben Jorritsma (ABN Amro) are in agreement that equities will be the most lucrative asset class for investors in 2017. But they all also have individual views on which other areas they favor, varying from high yield bonds and commodities to real estate.

  • Maarten van der Pas
    Maarten
    van der Pas
    Investment Writer at Robeco

Are you ready to rumble? The three investment experts and Robeco Chief Economist Léon Cornelissen entered the arena like gladiators, each making a short pitch in which they tried to convince the asset managers, investment advisors and bankers in the audience of their views on the financial markets and investing in general.

Strong economic recovery

“2017 will be the year when things get back to normal with steady global economic growth and rising inflation”, stated Gerben Jorritsma. The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Portfolio Expertise at ABN AMRO Bank sees evidence that confidence among consumer and producers has returned.

Jorritsma made a few distinctions between his ideas and Robeco's economic outlook. “ABN Amro expects a strong economic recovery whereas Robeco Solutions Chief Investment Officer Lukas Daalder has a more moderate view. “Perhaps the economy will grow more and inflation will increase further than we are now predicting. The economy does not follow the calendar year and the third quarter of 2016 was the turning point for the market. Fundamental factors also carry more weight than political factors. It's only the facts that count.

So, according to Jorritsma, 2017 will remain the year of equities for investment portfolios. “I expect to see double digit earnings growth for stocks. And as long as Treasury yields stay below 3% and the European ten-year at 1%, bonds will remain out of favor.”

最新の「インサイト」を読む
最新の「インサイト」を読む
配信登録

Watch out for reflation

“Unseen dangers always pose the biggest threat”, Han Dieperink, Chief Investment Officer of Rabobank Retail & Private Banking, reminded the audience. “Investors are focused on the more obvious issues of Donald Trump and Brexit. But the political risks of the Trump administration are not so great and I don't predict populist victories in the various European elections either.”

The unseen danger, according to Dieperink, is the risk that central banks stop their reflation efforts. “At the moment it is still a case of short and long-term rates being structurally lower than the level of economic growth, but a central bank that hikes rates aggressively could still ruin everything.”

Dieperink does not expect 2017 to differ greatly to 2016 when it comes to investing. “Equities will deliver above-average returns, while bond performance will be below average. But the outlook is not negative for all bonds, high yield is an exception.

‘Helicopter money would be an interesting experiment’

Market sentiment is too positive

“The economy is doing pretty well”, said Bob Homan optimistically. “Productivity has been stagnant for ten years and is now picking up again.” But the head of ING's Investment Office is cautious too. “Trump's plans could cause the economy to overheat, which could result in inflation and rising national debt. Investors are aware of this. Nor do I believe in double-digit earnings growth for stocks like Gerben Jorritsma does. I think growth will be around 5%.

Homan advises opting for short duration (interest rate sensitivity) when it comes to bonds. “Bonds generate limited returns. There are some gains to be made, high yield and inflation-linked bonds still offer potential profits of 1.5% to 2%. These segments of the bond market are interesting.” Homan does feel that market sentiment is extremely positive at present. “We are neutral on equities. This is a highly contrarian view.”

No helicopter money

Jorritsma, Dieperink, Homan and Cornelissen are given a number of hypotheses. None of them expect there to be any helicopter money in 2017. Homan and Jorritsma both expect inflation to rise. Dieperink suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) has in fact already started tapering. “There will be little monetary activity until the German elections in the autumn. After that, accommodative monetary policy will be phased out more quickly.” Cornelissen is disappointed that money will not be distributed to the citizens of Europe. “It would be an interesting experiment. Although free money is often stashed away and so does not really help stimulate the economy.

The audience were also able to vote on the hypotheses. Almost half of those present expect the Brexit to be delayed by a year. “I actually sort of hope it will be postponed”, said Homan. “But the question is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The UK will be OK, as will Europe.” Jorritsma is aware that the United Kingdom could circumvent the regulations to leave the European Union. “Which could also cast doubt on the issue of British parliamentary approval.”

All four expect equities to perform best in the year to come. Apart from that they all have their own ideas. After equities, Homan is most positive on high yield bonds. Jorritsma also mentions real estate and commodities as profitable asset classes. Dieperink is not positive on commodities. “And on this point, I do actually agree with Dieperink”, quipped Cornelissen.

This article is part of our Outlook 2017 event
This article is part of our Outlook 2017 event
Overview of all articles

重要事項

当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。

ご契約に際しては、必要に応じ専門家にご相談の上、最終的なご判断はお客様ご自身でなさるようお願い致します。

運用を行う資産の評価額は、組入有価証券等の価格、金融市場の相場や金利等の変動、及び組入有価証券の発行体の財務状況による信用力等の影響を受けて変動します。また、外貨建資産に投資する場合は為替変動の影響も受けます。運用によって生じた損益は、全て投資家の皆様に帰属します。したがって投資元本や一定の運用成果が保証されているものではなく、投資元本を上回る損失を被ることがあります。弊社が行う金融商品取引業に係る手数料または報酬は、締結される契約の種類や契約資産額により異なるため、当資料において記載せず別途ご提示させて頂く場合があります。具体的な手数料または報酬の金額・計算方法につきましては弊社担当者へお問合せください。

当資料及び記載されている情報、商品に関する権利は弊社に帰属します。したがって、弊社の書面による同意なくしてその全部もしくは一部を複製またはその他の方法で配布することはご遠慮ください。

商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会

本記事に関連するテーマ: