Trump is currently good for equities but bad for bonds

Trump is currently good for equities but bad for bonds

17-11-2016 | インサイト

Remarkable. That’s the best way to characterize the speed with which the stock markets went from fear to faith in less than 24 hours following the surprise Trump victory. Reflation was all of a sudden the name of the game. Tax cuts and new bridges for all! Good news for equities (the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to reach a new all-time high), but bad news for bonds. Tax cuts and new bridges stimulate the economy (=more inflation) and cost a lot of money (=more debt), which explains why bonds bore the brunt of it.

  • Lukas Daalder
    Chief Investment Officer

To us this sounds like a pretty one-sided interpretation of what may be in store. Sure, Trump has mentioned taxes and infrastructure, but what about bringing back jobs from China, canceling the Nafta trade agreement, and deporting millions of undocumented foreigners? These kinds of measures are certainly not going to boost domestic demand, and could come as a shock to a financial system that was not looking very strong to start with. The Great Depression was so great because of the trade wars that took place during that period.


Underweight government bonds

Timing is everything. Although we see an increase in risks and uncertainty, the market has opted to go for the positives. Markets can be irrational longer than we would like to see, which is why we currently have a tight stop-loss in our short position in equities, but we remain underweight government bonds.

Changes to the Robeco Investment Solutions portfolio. Source: Robeco


当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。




商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会