The synchronized shift – When economies play a rare harmony
2026 is expected to deliver a rare, short-lived global upswing, driven by easing trade tensions, a manufacturing rebound, and central bank support. But this harmony may be fleeting, with new risks on the horizon.
This year, we’re releasing two outlooks:
Investment Outlook, outlining three distinct scenarios for growth.
Sustainable Investing Outlook, forecasting a surge in climate transition investments.
Investment Outlook: The synchronized shift
Key takeaways
Our base case predicts a brief global rebound driven by easing trade tensions.
We also see the European growth engine roaring back, and China at a crossroads for revival.
Equities may rally further, with EMs gaining from a weaker dollar and US Treasuries facing downside risk.
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Inflation’s next move: Fire or fizzle?
While a synchronized global upswing could spark inflation, the report forecasts US CPI to hover around 3%, with eurozone inflation even lower. However, regional differences and policy shifts could quickly change the picture. See the scenarios for inflation surprises and their impact on markets.
We see easing trade tensions, a global manufacturing rebound, and the lagged effects of monetary easing. Peter van der Welle
Peter van der Welle
Strategist, Investment Solutions
Equities & bonds: Melt-up or meltdown?
Equities could see another rally if easing continues, but high valuations and the risk of a bursting AI bubble keep markets on edge. Bonds face the prospect of higher yields and shifting term premiums. Discover which sectors and regions are poised to outperform – and where caution is warranted.
Tail risks: What could derail 2026?
From a US recession and AI bubble burst to renewed trade wars and systemic credit events, the report outlines six top risks that could upend the outlook. Get the full list of triggers and how to prepare for market shocks.
Sustainable Investing Outlook: Holding the note
Key takeaways
We expect capital allocation to shift to climate transition strategies and managing weather-related risks.
Sustainable investors are likely to engage more in an expanded defense industry value chain including infrastructure.
A potential area of strength is thematic investing, including ETFs focused on clean energy. Green bond issues are slowing.
We expect more capital for climate transition strategies, with 2026 likely to focus on physical climate risks. Rachel Whittaker, CFA
Rachel Whittaker, CFA
Head of Sustainable Alpha Research
