Spreads have risen again recently, as the market has been giving greater attention to difficult budget negotiations and opinion polls for next spring’s presidential election. Social unrest has added to the pressure. These developments suggest that fiscal consolidation will be difficult over both shorter and longer horizons.

Debt dynamics have become even more important with rising interest expenses. If current fiscal policies persist, French debt could easily rise to 137% of GDP by 2030, a level similar to Italy’s. Interest payments alone could then reach 5% of GDP, making deficit reduction even more difficult. Rising debt levels and a lack of policies to curb fiscal deficits would put continued pressure on the credit rating and potential demand for French OATs.

The market scare in French bonds has also affected spreads for lower-rated euro-area government bonds, such as Italian BTPs and Greek government bonds. Euro government-related and corporate bonds have also experienced pressure on their spreads.

A rapid further widening in countries such as Italy and Greece would signal broader stress. Spreads on shorter-maturity bonds will be monitored closely, as will pressure on European banks’ share prices and credit spreads.

Elevated energy prices underpin our expectation of ECB hikes in December and March. However, further material widening in French spreads, accompanied by spillovers, could cause hikes to be skipped.

There is probably no magic level. The speed of spread widening and its breadth outside France will play important roles. Material widening in shorter-maturity bonds can be an early sign that stress may be intensifying. Postponing further hikes could then help calm market concerns to some extent.

If tensions in the OAT market continue to spread to other sovereign debt markets, pressure on the ECB may increase to the point where intervention becomes unavoidable. The ECB could initially intervene verbally by reminding markets of its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). The instrument allows the ECB to buy bonds from eligible euro-area countries if unwarranted, disorderly market moves threaten the transmission of monetary policy across the euro area.

In our view, there should ultimately be enough flexibility in the TPI rules to allow bond purchases, including OATs. However, there is a high hurdle to activating the tool, as it could give policymakers the wrong incentives – the problem of moral hazard.

Uncertainty around the French fiscal outlook is likely to remain elevated in the coming months. While there may be room for temporary relief rallies after significant widening, the outlook going into the election will probably remain difficult for French OATs. Pressure on France’s credit rating is also likely to continue.

We will continue to trade French OATs actively.² For now, the outlook remains challenging, but we remain open to buying French debt, depending on spread levels and political developments.

Some issuers have seen significant spread widening even though their credit profiles remain strong (the EU) or have improved significantly (Greece and Portugal). For France, quick approval of the 2027 budget or stronger support in opinion polls for centrist candidates with fiscal consolidation plans would be positive signals.

Footnotes

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² Specific issuers or securities are for illustrative and factual market review purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or financial advice.