belgiumfr
Look for the underdog

Look for the underdog

21-01-2020 | Perspectives trimestrielles

The year ahead is shaping up as a good one for global equities. And the signals that we were looking for to see outperformance of ex-US equities versus US equities have started to line up.

  • Fabiana Fedeli
    Fabiana
    Fedeli
    Global Head of Fundamental Equities
  • Wim-Hein  Pals
    Wim-Hein
    Pals
    Head of Emerging Markets team
  • Michiel  Plakman
    Michiel
    Plakman
    Portfoliomanager Robeco Global Stars Equities

Speed read

  • Our stance turns positive for both developed and emerging markets
  • We now have more clarity on key developments
  • Time to rerate the underdogs, starting with emerging markets

In our latest Quarterly, our stance on both developed and emerging equity markets was neutral. Investors were playing a pinball game, bouncing off President Trump’s tweets and the occasional news on monetary policy. At that time, we didn’t know whether we were going to have a China-US trade deal anytime soon and earnings momentum across all the major equity markets had meaningfully weakened.

What has changed over the last three months, that tilts the needle toward more bullishness and makes us feel more sanguine about ex-US equities? Well, we have more clarity now. Global macro is proving to be more resilient than we expected, with some signs of bottoming out. More importantly for equity markets, the deterioration in earnings momentum seems to have halted.

Last but not least, the pivotal trade deal between China and the US is moving in the right direction. The two countries have just signed their Phase I agreement. The agreement is far from comprehensive and has kept in place most of the tariffs that were imposed thus far. That said, it offers hope that further escalation in the tariff war is now off the table.

Reflecting all of the above, our portfolio management teams have become more optimistic on their respective equity markets and have upgraded the conclusions of their five-factor frameworks from neutral to positive. This is the time to rerate the underdogs, as long as fundamentals continue to improve, starting with emerging markets.

Maintenant, suivez-nous aussi sur Instagram
Maintenant, suivez-nous aussi sur Instagram
Suivez

Download the Fundamental Equities Outlook Q1 2020

Disclaimer

Ce rapport n'est pas disponible pour les utilisateurs des pays où l'offre de services financiers étrangers n'est pas autorisée, tels que les ressortissants américains.

Vos informations ne sont pas partagées avec des tiers. Les présentes informations sont destinées exclusivement aux investisseurs professionnels. Toutes les demandes sont vérifiées.

Logo

Décharge légale Agree

Les informations présentes sur ce site Web sont destinées exclusivement aux professionnels. Un investisseur professionnel est : un investisseur qui, à titre professionnel, dispose d'assez de connaissances et d'une expertise et d'une expérience suffisantes pour pouvoir évaluer de manière adéquate les risques financiers liés aux décisions d'investissement prises par lui-même.

Les visiteurs de ce site Web doivent être conscients du fait qu’ils sont eux-mêmes tenus de respecter toutes les lois et règlements en vigueur dans leur pays.

En cliquant sur J'accepte, vous confirmez que vous êtes un investisseur professionnel. Si vous cliquez sur Je n'accepte pas, vous êtes orienté vers la partie réservée aux particuliers.

Je n’accepte pas