The arrival of agentic commerce also brings along unprecedented change in how payments are done. AI agents promise frictionless automation, but merchants are likely to remain wary. The current reality also reflects a level of hype more than readiness as merchants see AI agents as bots not buyers, raising fraud concerns and undermining checkout security models. Trust is the biggest intangible asset any payments company has. Trust in both protecting customers’ money and digital identity. Online fraud already is a huge headache for merchants, just imagine what happens when autonomous agents roam the internet making purchases.
For agentic commerce to scale, payment methods like card tokenization, single-use virtual cards and stablecoins alongside digital identification are crucial. Tokenization of bank cards alongside single-use virtual cards probably means that the network companies like Visa and Mastercard are yet again well-positioned to define the standard agentic commerce will require. Visa and Mastercard offer the brand trust, global coverage and technical platform required and both unveiled AI powered platforms in April 2025 (Intelligent Commerce and Agent Pay, respectively) with a slew of features around agentic commerce including AI-ready cards, tokenized credentials and security, and programmable transaction controls.
The current payments infrastructure is already deeply entrenched, with over 100 million merchant endpoints and 8 billion consumer credentials. This creates a massive last-mile challenge for any new payment method attempting to achieve mainstream adoption. Stablecoins, tokenized currencies like the US dollar, would be an ideal foundation for agentic payments – offering programmability, support for micro-transactions, and a 24/7 global infrastructure. If we were designing the payments system from scratch today, these would be a natural choice.
As payment complexity increases and instant approvals are crucial, modern payment processors such as Stripe, Adyen and Braintree (PayPal) should benefit. An API-first and single technology stack plays into the hands of modern processors. Legacy platforms are more rigid and typically have problems adapting quickly to changes in payment protocols and custom token flows, especially in real time. This implies that traditional banks and scaled processors like Worldline, Nexi and Global Payments are likely to continue losing share. While the importance of digital identity should be beneficial for digital wallets like PayPal and Apple, the big question is whether ‘branded’ checkout remains as relevant as today. Two-sided wallets such as PayPal or Block’s Cash App can however expand their value proposition and help consumers dynamically find savings, rewards, personalization and trust. This could be a huge challenge for bank card issuers. Just imagine a world where an AI assistant recommends the right card for optimizing rewards. It would take competition to a whole new level, especially in the US where rewards are a huge driver of consumer payment behavior.
Agentic commerce presents an intriguing mid- to long-term thematic investment opportunity. However, there are current challenges related to infrastructure, incentives, and security (fraud) that need to be addressed for it to scale effectively in the near term. Network companies such as Visa and Mastercard are once again well-positioned to establish agentic commerce standards, much like modern payment processors such as Stripe and Adyen can benefit from. Additionally, (social) commerce platforms with integrated payments such as Tencent, MercadoLibre, and Shopify, may be at the forefront of advancing general to genius commerce. AI and fintech: a perfect match.
Footnotes
1 Tobias Lütke, CEO Shopify, in a memo to all Shopify employees – ‘AI usage is now a baseline expectation’, March 2025
2 Klarna Slows AI-Driven Job Cuts With Call for Real People – Bloomberg, 8 May, 2025
3 Pony Ma, CEO Tencent, Q1 2025 earnings call, May 2025
Important note: The companies referenced are for illustrative purposes only in order to demonstrate the investment strategy on the date stated. The companies are not necessarily held by the strategy. This is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation, nor should any inference be made on the future development of the company.