Is the worst behind us?
The phrase ‘green shoots’ is popping up everywhere in the last couple of days. Driven by better-than-expected macroeconomic data out of China, the narrative in markets has quickly changed from pricing in a more realistic probability of a recession to pricing in a rebound in economic momentum. Germany’s expected GDP growth will be one of the key factors to watch in determining if the worst is behind us. I do believe GDP growth will start to improve from here, helping the export-driven German economy, but the strength of this rebound is still a bit difficult to grasp. This could lead to surprises both on the upside and the downside. Equity markets, however, seem to favor the former over the latter.
As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
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