Central bank watcher: Inflation dominance

Central bank watcher: Inflation dominance

20-10-2022 | インサイト
The fear that above-target inflation could get entrenched continues to drive the discussion at most central banks.
  • Martin van Vliet
    van Vliet
    Strategist Global Macro Team
  • Rikkert  Scholten
  • Bob Stoutjesdijk
    Strategist and Portfolio Manager Global Macro Fixed Income

Speed read

  • The Fed is not done yet
  • ECB tiering it to pieces
  • Watch the PBoC’s yield tactics

Market fears of ‘fiscal dominance’ over monetary policy received a fresh boost recently by developments in the UK. With the U-turn on tax-cut plans, such fears have diminished somewhat. But global bond markets are still on edge.

Meanwhile, concern about high, above-target inflation getting entrenched continues to dominate most central banks’ thinking, except in China and Japan, where underlying inflation pressures remain subdued. Indeed, the PBoC is still in a targeted easing mode, whereas the BoJ continues to resist taking steps towards tighter monetary policy, thus reinforcing the downward pressure on the yen.

By contrast, the Fed seems determined to take the policy rate further into restrictive territory. The ECB is also on track to move to a contractionary rates-policy stance in early 2023. Along the way it is contemplating a retroactive change to the terms of the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) – hopefully without amplifying QE-induced distortions to money markets.

In our view, the onset of gradual QT and economic recession could prompt a halt in the ECB’s hike cycle in spring. By then, the Fed should also be done raising rates. For now, however, fear of entrenched inflation rules.

Outlook for central bank policy rates

Source: Bloomberg, Robeco. Change 12m ahead, based on money market futures and forwards; 19 October 2022
Download the Central Bank Watcher
With our latest analysis of global monetary policy.
Download the full report


当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。




商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会