Volatility sticks to the script in September

Volatility sticks to the script in September

13-10-2016 | インサイト

Markets wake up from summer slumber.
Sticking to the script, with the start of September, volatility returned to the financial markets. After mostly ignoring economic and political news for over two months, all of a sudden stocks and bonds showed an increased sensitivity to news ranging from Deutsche Bank and Trump, to the Brexit and the Bank of Japan.

  • Lukas Daalder
    Chief Investment Officer

Although all these developments are indeed important, the most striking one has been the Bank of Japan’s move to introduce yield curve targeting. Although there are some historical precedents (postwar US) for this, it is a relatively new measure, which means the central bank has neutralized the market pricing mechanism for the yield curve up to ten years. So much for free markets.

The return of volatility has not meant that markets have taken a new direction though. Looking at the returns of the broader asset classes, most of them stayed within a remarkably tight range of +/- 0.6%. Commodities (partly thanks to the OPEC deal) and real estate were the exceptions to this.


Volatility returns, direction does not. Source: Robeco

We remain cautious on asset classes

We remain cautious with respect to the various asset classes. We do not like government bonds (the short-term risk may be limited, but so are returns); we are worried about equities (the US market is expensive and earnings keep disappointing); and are not completely convinced about emerging markets. We are taking a wait-and-see approach.

The current positioning of Robeco Investment Solutions. Source: Robeco.


当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。




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