Few things are more disruptive than losing your business. Just as trains replaced horses and digital photos replaced film, those companies not taking climate change seriously are unlikely to survive.
Meeting net zero carbon goals by 2050 requires decarbonization on a global scale. Its scope will range from switching from coal-fired power stations to wind farms, to electrifying vehicles, insulating every building and making agriculture more efficient.
This will produce many winners, particularly among those companies that form part of the many technological solutions to climate change. These can be found in arenas such as renewable energy infrastructure, carbon capture systems and recycling techniques.
Ultimately it means moving to a circular economy to reduce the manufacturing processes that generate carbon in the first place.
And there will also be losers – those companies that are too slow to adapt to the need to move to lower-carbon business models over the coming decade. As regulation gets tougher and consumer tastes change in favor of more climate-friendly products, these companies will eventually be the ones still selling horses when the railroad has arrived.
Decarbonizing as the yardstick
Separating the wheat from the chaff is the job of any asset manager who is serious about performance. One way in which this is done is by measuring how well a company is doing in decarbonizing its business model, using metrics that measure greenhouse gas emissions, energy used for heating and waste produced during the production process.
For example, many car manufacturers have already announced plans to have an all-electric model range by 2030, to avoid their businesses becoming obsolete when governments eventually ban petrol and diesel vehicles from the roads. These will be the winners, while auto makers still offering internal combustion engines in a decade’s time are likely to be shunned by investors.
Airlines offer a different example. Battery-powered aircraft are currently not possible, since the weight of the battery needed to generate the power for take-off would be three times the weight of a modern jetliner. Instead, they are switching from four-engine aircraft to more fuel-efficient twin-engine planes, and many have announced plans to ditch their fleets of the iconic four-engine Boeing 747 jumbo jets.
For energy companies, it is a different story again, since the world will remain reliant on oil and gas for many years to come. This means the winners in this industry are increasingly viewed as those whose business models are transitioning towards wind and solar power, for when the oil and gas either runs out, or can no longer be sold.