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Decline
Brexit – the options and consequences

Brexit – the options and consequences

07-07-2017 | Insight

The Brexit timeline has begun, and the clock is now ticking, so what are the prospects for the UK? The country now faces two years of potentially tortuous negotiations in order to leave the EU by the deadline of 29 March, 2019.

  • Léon  Cornelissen
    Léon
    Cornelissen
    Chief Economist

On the first anniversary of the historic Brexit referendum, the government minister in charge of delivering it has said it is likely to be more difficult than the moon landing. There are a number of sticking points, from the cost of the divorce, to what to do with millions of expats on either side of the English Channel.

And the biggest issue remains what the UK will do when it leaves a Single Market that it has enjoyed trading with, tariff free, for more than four decades. A number of options are available, including those already followed by non-EU nations, though none look set to be politically or economically expedient. In the meantime, the country faces a greatly weakened currency, rising inflation and falling GDP growth.

In this white paper, we analyze the consequences of Brexit, the likely path that secession will take, and the economic and political consequences for the future of the UK.

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