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Decline

29-03-2016 · Interview

Making the most of Momentum

There is strong evidence that momentum investing works, even though some critics claim that a stock’s past performance can’t be relied on to predict its future returns, and that momentum strategies can involve high turnover and the risk of a trend reversing.
We spoke to Willem Jellema, the dedicated momentum portfolio manager in Robeco’s Quantitative Equities team, to find out more about Momentum and how Robeco exploits this proven factor premium while avoiding the potential pitfalls it can involve.

    Authors

  • Simon Lansdorp - PhD, Portfolio Manager Sustainable Index Solutions

    Simon Lansdorp

    PhD, Portfolio Manager Sustainable Index Solutions

We spoke to Willem Jellema, the dedicated momentum portfolio manager in Robeco’s Quantitative Equities team, to find out more about Momentum and how Robeco exploits this proven factor premium while avoiding the potential pitfalls it can involve.

What is the momentum effect?

“Back in the 17th century, Isaac Newton showed that bodies that are moving tend to remain in motion. This law of nature has also been shown to hold true in financial markets today: stocks that have done well generally continue to do better on average, and the reverse is true for stocks that have performed poorly.”

Why isn’t Momentum more popular?

“An important reason is that it’s hard to successfully implement a momentum strategy in practice. It can expose investors to the reversal risk after periods of momentum driven by overreaction. Transaction costs can also pose a problem, as momentum can be a high-turnover strategy.”

What’s the premise behind Robeco Momentum?

“We believe that Momentum is one of the most attractive factor premia in existence, and that it should form part of every successful factor equity strategy. To optimally harvest the momentum premium, Robeco Momentum Equities takes an active approach to negate the pitfalls of reversal risk and transaction costs linked to traditional momentum strategies.”

How is your momentum strategy different from others?

“Our active approach reduces exposure to style factor risk, such as exposure to the market. Contrary to what proponents of a risk-based explanation for momentum believe, in our view this risk is unrewarded. Furthermore, our portfolio construction process brings down transaction costs to acceptable levels: our realized turnover is lower than that of the MSCI Momentum index. Finally, our momentum strategy doesn’t go against other proven factor premia: for example, we prefer cheaper momentum stocks to more expensive ones to avoid going against the value effect.”

Our momentum strategy doesn’t go against other proven factor premia

How do you deal with the risks associated with momentum strategies?

“We reduce the unrewarded exposure to style factor risk with our internally developed residualization technique. What does this mean exactly? In short, we select stocks that have performed well due to their individual stock-specific characteristics rather than those that have risen because they are highly geared towards a strongly performing market.

We do this by correcting stock returns for their exposure to style factors such as market beta. Our residualization technique removes the risk linked to reversals in style factors. This enables us to primarily select stocks that have good momentum because of investor under-reaction, which is a much more stable driver of returns than the riskier over-reaction.”

QI Global Momentum Equities D EUR

performance ytd (30/04)
-9.32%
Performance 3y (30/04)
8.08%
since inception (30/04)
8.74%
total size of fund (30/04)
30mln
morningstar (30/04)
View the fund
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of the investments may fluctuate. Annualized (for periods longer than one year). Performances are net of fees and based on transaction prices.

Is it easy to select suitable stocks for your portfolio?

“Whenever we rebalance a momentum portfolio, we select the stocks that score best according to our freshly updated momentum model, which applies our residualization technique to the momentum signal and penalizes stocks that score badly on other proven factors (such as Value and Low Volatility).

We only invest in a stock if the added exposure to the momentum premium it provides outweighs the costs of buying it and selling a less attractive stock. This is how we achieve much lower transaction costs than other momentum strategies. The whole process is highly structured, automated and based on transparent rules, so despite the different steps involved, it is simple to implement and we understand exactly what’s going on in the portfolio. So it’s not a black box, and in this way we stay in control.”

How can investors combine the strategy with other factors?

“Momentum is a great diversifier in a factor premium equity portfolio because of its low correlation with other factors like Low Volatility, and in fact it can even have a negative correlation with Value. By not going against other factors when we construct our portfolio we achieve a correlation close to zero, so we do not lose money by, for example, being exposed to growth stocks as a result of taking exposure to Momentum.”

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What is Robeco’s experience with Momentum?

“We’ve been researching and implementing Momentum ever since we started building stock selection models in the 1990s, and our first fully quant equity portfolio in 2002 profited from the momentum effect. Based on this long experience we launched our unique active momentum strategy in 2012, and we will continue to improve the way we exploit the Momentum factor.”

Where does investor interest for your strategy come from?

“Most clients of our momentum strategy invest in it as part of a broader factor equity strategy, but with our strong three-year track record we are seeing more and more interest in stand-alone allocations to the strategy. Last year’s positive momentum premium and the excellent performance of our strategy again showed the importance of Momentum and how we can harvest it with our active approach, so we expect our strategy to keep gaining its own momentum.”

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Robeco aims to enable its clients to achieve their financial and sustainability goals by providing superior investment returns and solutions.

Important information This disclaimer applies to any documents and the verbal or written comments of any person in presentations or webinars on this website and taken together is referred to herein as the “Information”. The services to which the Information relate are NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS - The information contained in the Website is solely intended for professional investors, defined as investors which (1) qualify as professional clients within the meaning of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), (2) have requested to be treated as professional clients within the meaning of the MiFID or (3) are authorized to receive such information under any other applicable laws and must not be relied or acted upon by any other persons. This Information does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any financial product, and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any financial product. You are cautioned against using this Information as the basis for making a decision to purchase any financial product. To the extent that you rely on the Information in connection with any investment decision, you do so at your own risk. The Information does not purport to be complete on any topic addressed. The Information may contain data or analysis prepared by third parties and no representation or warranty about the accuracy of such data or analysis is provided.
In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management UK Limited (“RIAM UK”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. RIAM UK, 30 Fenchurch Street, Part Level 8, London EC3M 3BD (FCA Reference No:1007814). The company is registered in England and Wales under Ref No. 15362605.

In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. is authorised as a manager of UCITS and AIFs by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and subject to limited regulation in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.