Robeco All Strategy Euro Bonds I EUR

Outspoken active approach in euro-denominated government and corporate bonds

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Aandelenklassen
Klasse en codes
  • Fondscategorie
    Bonds
  • ISIN
    LU0210247085
  • Bloomberg
    RCGASIE LX
Fondscategorie
Bonds
ISIN
LU0210247085
Bloomberg
RCGASIE LX
Index
Bloomberg Euro Aggregate
Informatieverschaffing over duurzaamheid
Artikel 8
Morningstar
Rating
( )
Commentaar
Overzicht Rendement & kosten Portefeuille Duurzaamheid Commentaar Documenten Wijzig fonds
Wijzig fonds

Marktontwikkeling

Per
Government bond returns were negative across the globe in July. 10-year US Treasuries rose 27 basis points to 4.73% while the 30-year bond reached its highest yield since 2007. The German Bund yield even rose by 35 basis points to 3.21%. Oil prices rose sharply again, driven by a renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which fueled concerns about inflation and increased expectations for further monetary policy tightening. As widely anticipated, the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%. President Lagarde highlighted the downside risks to growth stemming from higher energy prices, while reiterating the ECB's data-dependent approach. In the US, labor market data continued to point to a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment. Although the unemployment rate declined, this was driven by a lower participation rate rather than stronger job creation. The Fed left rates unchanged at its July meeting, despite markets assigning some probability to a rate hike ahead of the decision. Peripheral Eurozone spreads widened marginally versus Bunds, as investors demanded a higher risk premium amid weaker risk sentiment and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Toelichting rendement

Per
Based on transaction prices, the fund's return was -1.53%. The fund posted a negative return over the month, slightly below its index. In recent weeks we have used spikes in yields (which also led to front-end flattening) to gradually increase both the overall duration of the portfolio and to increase curve steepeners. Market pricing for the ECB is not that different from the end of March, when markets got spooked about the inflationary impact of prolonged oil disruptions. While a September hike seems likely, we would need to see more evidence of 2nd round effects to see them do more than that. As our base case remains that before year-end some sort of a solution has been found, and oil and gas prices will be lower than they are currently, we think current levels offer attractive entry points for both duration and curve steepeners. Around month-end we closed the underweight in Italy, while we remain cautious with regard to France. Volatility in credit spreads remains extremely low. We keep the credit beta somewhat above one and remain patient for opportunities to increase allocation when spreads widen.

Verwachting van de fondsmanager

  • Michiel de Bruin
    Michiel de Bruin
  • Stephan van IJzendoorn
    Stephan van IJzendoorn
  • Lauren Mariano
    Lauren Mariano
The renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to upside risks to inflation and increased the scope for further monetary tightening. In the US, this raises chances that the Federal Reserve might raise its policy rate later this year. That said, a meaningful deterioration in labor market conditions or a sharp decline in oil prices could prevent the Fed from acting. We expect the ECB to hike rates by 25 bps at their September meeting if oil prices stay at current levels. After September, our base case is for a stable depo rate at 2.5%, but in our base scenario we expect more stable energy prices and a continued absence of second round effects on inflation. Within European sovereign spreads, we expect further divergence across countries. While Spain and Greece continue to benefit from a more favorable economic backdrop, French government bond spreads are likely to remain under widening pressure, as investor focus shifts toward upcoming presidential elections and fiscal developments.