13-10-2026 • Insight

What three 2050 climate scenarios mean for pensions

What will climate change mean for your pension? The world isn't currently on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the year when millions of today's workers will retire. A comfortable future depends on more than how financial markets perform. The state of the planet, and the world we retire into, will matter too.

Authors

Head of Solutions Research

Client Portfolio Manager Sustainable Investing

Bruno Gardner

Head of Climate Change and Nature , Standard Life

In a special study, Robeco and the UK pensions provider Standard Life look at three climate scenarios and what each could mean for retiring in 2050. In the optimistic one, efforts to cut emissions and adapt to climate change have succeeded. The second sees uneven progress towards net zero. The pessimistic one is a 'too little, too late' world with greater physical risks. The study follows three fictional savers through these futures to show what retirement could really feel like.

Illustrative modeling shows considerable gaps between potential pension pots. In the most exposed scenario, a pot is more than a fifth smaller than in the most resilient one, and the money doesn't go as far. The central message is that retirement security depends not only on savings, but also on inflation, infrastructure and social resilience. Better outcomes are still possible. To get there, investors, pension providers, employers, policymakers and individuals need to work together through long-term investment, adaptation and preparation.