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Blokland’s daily sketch

Blokland’s daily sketch

19-11-2019

Negative surprises

  • Jeroen Blokland
    Jeroen
    Blokland
    Head of Multi Asset

The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has dropped below zero, meaning negative surprises outweigh positive macro-economic surprises. Several nowcast surveys are now predicting very little US GDP growth for this quarter. For example, the Atlanta Fed GDP now forecast has declined to just 0.3%. Hence it is not unthinkable that the US economy is stalling in the final quarter of this year, making investors look to the Federal Reserve for more easing. At this point, however, the odds of that easing happening seem low. And while the pace of GDP growth is expected to pick up next year, there is a real risk that this will take just a bit longer than equity investors in particular can handle.

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As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
Previous editions of the daily sketch can be found on my personal financial markets blog. All graphics provided are collected from Bloomberg data and public websites. They do not always reflect my personal opinion and may also not necessarily reflect the opinion of Robeco. Please cite all references or quote the original source if replicating content.

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