One frequently discussed finding in the literature is the “favorite long-shot bias”. That is the fact that bettors value ‘long shots’, horses highly unlikely to win, more than they should, given how rarely they finish first. At the same time, they value safe bets too little, given how often they win. But is this phenomenon due to misperception of risk (overconfidence), or simply to risk-loving behavior?
This study* by Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers found that the former explanation is probably the main driver. By analogy, the low-volatility anomaly can also be framed as a long-shot bias on the equity market. From this perspective, the anomaly is not driven by risk-loving preferences, but by chronic overconfidence of investors.
*‘Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?’, Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfer, NBER Working Paper No. 15923, 2010.
Our researchers publish many whitepapers based on their own empirical studies; they also follow quantitative research done by others.
Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (DIFC Branch) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) and only deals with Professional Clients and Market Counterparties, and does not deal with Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA.
Neither information nor any opinion expressed on the website constitutes a solicitation, an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or dispose of any investment, to engage in any other transaction or to provide any investment advice or service. An investment in a Robeco product should only be made after reading the related legal documents such as management regulations, prospectuses, annual and semi-annual reports, which can be all be obtained free of charge at this website and at the Robeco offices in each country where Robeco has a presence.
Please confirm that you are a professional investor and/or institutional investor and that you have read, understood and accept the terms of use for this website.