This year’s annual outlook is inspired by Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities. We expect the economic expansion to last a little longer, and the equity bull market to enter the last leg of a near decade-long climb. Based on expected global GDP growth, company earnings, and the relative value of equities compared to other assets, there is definitely a case for a prolonged period of tailwind for investors.
But what if earnings and GDP growth stall earlier than we expect and the recession does hit in 2020? Should we also brace ourselves for the alternative outcome – a scenario in which markets are sent spiraling during the course of next year?
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