If we only had the published macro data of the US and Eurozone to go by, we would probably have concluded that August was a boring month: most economic data published was in line with expectations, showing a path of steady growth. Of course, this conclusion would have been completely wrong, as the end of the month was marked by a huge increase in volatility.
Stocks declined by as much as 10% in four trading sessions, the term ‘Black Monday’ was re-coined, the euro and yen spiked versus all other currencies, while oil dropped and then rebounded by more than 25% in three days of trading.
The source of all this volatility was the uncertainty about the economic prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, China. The ongoing collapse of Chinese stocks, the country’s weak export and PMI numbers and the unexpected devaluation of the yuan, raised doubts about the level of central government control. We broadly disagree, and are now in the process adding back the risk-tilt into our portfolios which we had reduced during the early part of the summer.
Volatility is probably going to remain high for some time to come, and it is certainly not the case that stocks have become cheap again. But because of the recent developments, the risk/reward ratio for equities has now become interesting again. As for bonds, although we remain neutral, we are changing our base case, as we now have a bias for rates to move higher.
The content displayed on this website is exclusively directed at qualified investors, as defined in the swiss collective investment schemes act of 23 june 2006 ("cisa") and its implementing ordinance, or at “independent asset managers” which meet additional requirements as set out below. Qualified investors are in particular regulated financial intermediaries such as banks, securities dealers, fund management companies and asset managers of collective investment schemes and central banks, regulated insurance companies, public entities and retirement benefits institutions with professional treasury or companies with professional treasury.
The contents, however, are not intended for non-qualified investors. By clicking "I agree" below, you confirm and acknowledge that you act in your capacity as qualified investor pursuant to CISA or as an “independent asset manager” who meets the additional requirements set out hereafter. In the event that you are an "independent asset manager" who meets all the requirements set out in Art. 3 para. 2 let. c) CISA in conjunction with Art. 3 CISO, by clicking "I Agree" below you confirm that you will use the content of this website only for those of your clients which are qualified investors pursuant to CISA.
Representative in Switzerland of the foreign funds registered with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority ("FINMA") for distribution in or from Switzerland to non-qualified investors is Robeco Switzerland AG, Josefstrasse 218, 8005 Zürich, and the paying agent is UBS Switzerland AG, Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zürich. Please consult www.finma.ch for a list of FINMA registered funds.
Neither information nor any opinion expressed on the website constitutes a solicitation, an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or dispose of any investment, to engage in any other transaction or to provide any investment advice or service. An investment in a Robeco/Robeco Switzerland product should only be made after reading the related legal documents such as management regulations, articles of association, prospectuses, key investor information documents and annual and semi-annual reports, which can be all be obtained free of charge at this website, at the registered seat of the representative in Switzerland, as well as at the Robeco/Robeco Switzerland offices in each country where Robeco has a presence. In respect of the funds distributed in Switzerland, the place of performance and jurisdiction is the registered office of the representative in Switzerland.
This website is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where, by reason of that person's nationality, residence or otherwise, the publication or availability of this website is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access this website.