united kingdomen
The brand-new pinball style

The brand-new pinball style

23-10-2019 | Quarterly outlook
The past few weeks have been filled with news of US-China trade talks and Brexit. While we don’t have much more certainty than before on either issue, we do have a better understanding of how far some of the parties involved are willing to go to reach a resolution. For all of his tough talking about a no-deal Brexit, Boris Johnson has worked hard to resolve the issue of the Irish border and put a new deal on the table. Meanwhile, President Trump appears keener than ever to show that he has “made the deal” with China.
  • Fabiana Fedeli
    Fabiana
    Fedeli
    Global Head of Fundamental Equities
  • Wim-Hein  Pals
    Wim-Hein
    Pals
    Head of Emerging Markets team
  • Michiel  Plakman
    Michiel
    Plakman
    Portfoliomanager Robeco Global Stars Equities

In the current news whirlwind, a new style seems to have emerged: pinball investing. Markets have been bouncing off tweets in whichever direction makes more sense at the time. The trade deal is on, equity markets go up and risk-on trades outperform; the trade deal is off, equity markets go down and turn more defensive. The probability of such binary outcomes is incorporated in our investment team’s five-factor outlook, which is now neutral for both developed and emerging equity markets.

Yet, while the news outcome might be 50/50, the risk-reward is asymmetric. While further degeneration in either the trade war or – limited to the UK and Europe – Brexit is likely to cause a negative price reaction, the upside that would be triggered by positive news at this point looks far greater.

Stay informed on our latest insights with monthly mail updates
Stay informed on our latest insights with monthly mail updates
Subscribe

Leave your details and download the quarterly outlook

Disclaimer:

This report is not available for users from countries where the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted, such as US Persons.

Your details are not shared with third parties. This information is exclusively intended for professional investors. All requests are checked.

Logo

Disclaimer

Please read this important information before proceeding further. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information contained on this website.

The information contained in the Website is NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS - The information contained in the Website is solely intended for professional investors, defined as investors which (1) qualify as professional clients within the meaning of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), (2) have requested to be treated as professional clients within the meaning of the MiFID or (3) are authorized to receive such information under any other applicable laws. The value of the investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency.

In the UK, Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“ROBECO”) only markets its funds to institutional clients and professional investors. Private investors seeking information about ROBECO should visit our corporate website www.robeco.com or contact their financial adviser. ROBECO will not be liable for any damages or losses suffered by private investors accessing these areas.

In the UK, ROBECO Funds has marketing approval for the funds listed on this website, all of which are UCITS funds. ROBECO is authorized by the AFM and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.

Many of the protections provided by the United Kingdom regulatory framework may not apply to investments in ROBECO Funds, including access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and the Financial Ombudsman Service. No representation, warranty or undertaking is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information on this website.

If you are not an institutional client or professional investor you should therefore not proceed. By proceeding please note that we will be treating you as a professional client for regulatory purposes and you agree to be bound by our terms and conditions.

If you do not accept these terms and conditions, as well as the terms of use of the website, please do not continue to use or access any pages on this website.

I Disagree