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Decline

31-03-2025 · Quarterly outlook

Equity outlook: Equities in a new world order

The short-term outlook for both developed and emerging market equities is clouded by trade policy fears, but active global investors have an opportunity to outperform as old certainties crumble.

Read the full Outlook


    Authors

  • Kees Verbaas - Global Head of Fundamental Equity

    Kees Verbaas

    Global Head of Fundamental Equity

  • Audrey Kaplan - Portfolio Manager

    Audrey Kaplan

    Portfolio Manager

  • Wim-Hein Pals - Head of Emerging Markets team

    Wim-Hein Pals

    Head of Emerging Markets team

Summary

  1. US equities are beset by fears over both growth and inflation

  2. European equities are underpinned by projected fiscal stimulus

  3. Emerging markets performance is mixed, reflecting trade policy uncertainty

We have never seen such an action-packed start to a new US administration period. Foreign, internal and trade policy is being overhauled with a decisive wave of executive orders, taking markets repeatedly by surprise. Domestically, businessman Trump looks at public finances like a company. With too many liabilities, the balance sheet does not add up. The government’s P&L is not healthy, with too many expenses and not enough revenues. As President, Trump intends to fix this, which in itself is not a bad idea. The chosen instruments, however, we believe are highly questionable from an economic point of view. Tariffs risk being inflationary, detrimental to growth and painful for the purchasing power of the less privileged. Snubbing long-time allies and not upholding trade agreements might impact market sentiment in a costly way, resulting in less capital flows.

The incredible intensity of policy measures is currently driving a sharp pivot in global stock allocations, away from the US and toward Europe and emerging markets. To us, this represents a rebalancing, and a nascent correction of the large valuation premium the US has established in the past decade. The sizable spending plans by European governments make the region suddenly more attractive. Policy responses in China should benefit that market as well, as described with a tennis analogy in Wim-Hein Pals’ emerging markets outlook piece. We have shifted the portfolios accordingly and remain agile enough to take opportunities when they come as conditions are changing quickly.

In this time of rapid change, we must also be mindful of staying invested in future economic drivers. Trip notes (page 10) from our global portfolio manager Yanxin Liu’s recent visit to San Francisco remind us that the engine of innovation in Silicon Valley is still running fast, and Nvidia’s recently revealed USD 500 billion capital investment plan confirms that. The productivity acceleration we anticipate from technology application across the global economy is still to manifest, and that will drive real economic and investment returns. There is little chance though that markets will go up in a straight line this year.

Read the full Outlook


Global Stars Equities Fund - EUR E

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performance ytd (30/04)
-12.16%
Performance 3y (30/04)
7.54%
since inception (30/04)
8.74%
total size of fund (30/04)
3755mln
morningstar (30/04)
View the fund
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The value of the investments may fluctuate. Annualized (for periods longer than one year). Performances are net of fees and based on transaction prices.

Fundamental equity: time-tested, all-weather route to alpha

Equities in developed and emerging markets expose investors to the growth of the global economy and the accelerating productivity gains from new technologies across market cycles.

Fundamental equity


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In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management UK Limited (“RIAM UK”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. RIAM UK, 30 Fenchurch Street, Part Level 8, London EC3M 3BD (FCA Reference No:1007814). The company is registered in England and Wales under Ref No. 15362605.

In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. is authorised as a manager of UCITS and AIFs by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and subject to limited regulation in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.