RobecoSAM US Green Bonds SEH GBP

Michiel de Bruin is Head of Euro Sovereigns within the Global Macro team and Portfolio Manager. Prior to joining Robeco in 2018, Michiel was Head of Global Rates and Money Markets at BMO Global Asset Management in London. He held various other positions before that, including Head of Euro Government Bonds. Before he joined BMO in 2003, he was, among others, Co-Head of Fixed income Sales and Trading at NIB Financial Markets in Amsterdam. Michiel started his career in the industry in 1986. He is a Certified European Financial Analyst and holds a Bachelor’s in Applied Sciences from University of Applied Sciences in Amsterdam. Peter Kwaak is Portfolio Manager Investment Grade in the Credit team. Prior to joining Robeco in 2005, he was Portfolio Manager Credits at Aegon Asset Management for three years and at NIB Capital for two years. Peter has been active in the industry since 1998. He holds a Master’s in Economics from Erasmus University Rotterdam and he is a CFA® charterholder.

The fund is established in Luxembourg and is subject to the Luxembourg tax laws and regulations. The fund is not liable to pay any corporation, income, dividend or capital gains tax in Luxembourg. The fund is subject to an annual subscription tax ('tax d'abonnement') in Luxembourg, which amounts to 0.05% of the net asset value of the fund. This tax is included in the net asset value of the fund. The fund can in principle use the Luxembourg treaty network to partially recover any withholding tax on its income.

The fiscal consequences of investing in this fund depend on the investor's personal situation. For private investors in the Netherlands real interest and dividend income or capital gains received on their investments are not relevant for tax purposes. Each year investors pay income tax on the value of their net assets as at 1 January if and inasmuch as such net assets exceed the investor’s tax-free allowance. Any amount invested in the fund forms part of the investor's net assets. Private investors who are resident outside the Netherlands will not be taxed in the Netherlands on their investments in the fund. However, such investors may be taxed in their country of residence on any income from an investment in this fund based on the applicable national fiscal laws. Other fiscal rules apply to legal entities or professional investors. We advise investors to consult their financial or tax adviser about the tax consequences of an investment in this fund in their specific circumstances before deciding to invest in the fund.

The fund’s sustainable investment objective is to invest in green bonds. Green bonds are bonds that are recognized as such by external sources and which proceeds are used to finance or re-finance in part or in full new and/or existing environmentally-friendly projects. The green bond selection is based on external data or an internally developed five-step Green bond framework. The five-step framework states that the issuer's green bond framework must be aligned with market standards related to green bonds such as such as the ICMA Green Bond Principles. Next, the allocation of the investment proceeds must contribute to at least one of the six objectives of the EU Taxonomy nor do any significant harm to the other five. The six objectives of the EU Taxonomy Regulation are climate change mitigation and adaptation, sustainable use and protection of water and marine resources, the transition to a circular economy, pollution prevention and control, and the protection of healthy ecosystems. The third and fourth steps require that the bond issuer reports on the use of proceeds and that the issuance aligns with the wider sustainability strategy of the issuer. The fifth and last step states that the issuer must respect international norms related to conduct such as international labor rights, human rights and the UN Global Compact. In addition, the investment process also takes into account exclusions following Robeco's exclusion policy and integrates financially material ESG factors in the bottom-up issuer analysis to assess the impact on the issuer's fundamentals.

Markets got off to a very strong start in January, and in February we saw a reversal across markets. US credit spreads widened, while European credit spreads continued to tighten. Global issuance remained robust amid an increase in rate volatility. The yield on the 2-year German Schatz rose nearly 50 bps, from 2.65% at the end of January to 3.14% at the end of February. In the US, 2-year Treasury yields even increased by 60 bps, from 4.20% to 4.82%. Macro data moved markets the most this month: stronger-than anticipated labor markets in the US, higher-than-expected core CPI figures across the globe, hawkish central bank rhetoric, and continued positive news flow around lower commodity prices, especially energy prices in Europe. This resulted in a sharp increase in 'investor expectations' of higher inflation for longer. The implied December 2023 Fed funds rose 80 bps to 5.28% and in Europe, it rose 47 bps to 3.79%. In the US, the infamous 2s10s curve and the Conference Board's index indicate a US recession is still highly likely. Meanwhile, in Japan, core CPI reached its highest level since the early 1980s. And in China, the reopening of the economy continues to benefit Asian economies.

Based on transaction prices, the fund's return was -2.76%. The fund posted a negative absolute return in February. The USD Green Bond Index delivered a total return of -2.08% this month. The credit spread on the USD Green Bond Index tightened by 3 bps to 92 basis points. The total return of the fund was -2.61%, underperforming the index. The main detractor from performance was the overweight duration position. As we are getting closer to the end of the tightening cycle, we will continue to gradually further scale into duration in the coming months. In addition, curve steepener positions detracted from performance as the curve bear-flattened. Especially the US 2s10s curve flattened. Our credit beta positioning made a neutral contribution that was offset by our issuer selection, which contributed positively. Our overweight in European credits added to our performance.

A hiking cycle often ends in a recession with rates typically peaking before credit spreads do. We believe we are in the valley between the two peaks. Rates have started to come down and may have peaked in some markets, while inflation is now easing. Credit spreads have also rallied a lot since mid-October, but are set to re-widen when markets start anticipating a recession that would hit corporate health. This is particularly the case for high yield credits. The probability of a recession rises and is increasingly becoming part of the consensus view. Once a recession is fully priced in and spreads reach their peak, it would be the time to go outright long across credit classes. Attractive valuations can be found in European investment grade and especially in financials. This market offers spreads that are above median levels and it also trades cheaply versus its US equivalent. Hence we are comfortable holding a small long in investment grade credit. Market technicals remain something to watch. Central banks will continue to be hawkish and asset purchase programs are being reduced or unwound. This means liquidity will be low and volatility is likely to stay with us in the medium term.