Client Portfolio Manager
• Insight
Emerging markets and the new geoeconomics
The rules-based international order is breaking down, but some emerging markets are exploiting US-China rivalry rather than suffering from it.
Authors
Summary
- Emerging markets are proving agile enough to thrive in a mercantilist world
- Keeping a neutral stance amid China-US rivalry is key
- Geoeconomics is influencing our country allocation in EM
One of the themes Robeco’s EM team has written about extensively is performance dispersion between emerging market countries from the perspective of equity market structure, policy frameworks, the strength of institutions, demographics, technology adoption and resource endowments. To add to this, a new and powerful source of differentiation is manifesting itself: the new era of geopolitical rivalry. For some countries like Brazil, India, Vietnam and Mexico, China-US rivalry is already proving a structural advantage. By maintaining different forms of strategic flexibility, these countries have been able to capture investment, trade and manufacturing flows from both sides. This ability to conduct trade and foreign policy effectively among competing economic blocs is now an increasingly important criterion in our country selection.
The active advantage
For investors, the conclusion is not simply that emerging markets will benefit from the new geoeconomic order. Rather, geopolitical fragmentation is increasing the differences between countries, sectors and companies, strengthening the case for an active approach to EM allocation.
At the country level, the ability to navigate relations with the US, China and other major economic powers is becoming an increasingly important investment characteristic. Countries that combine strategic flexibility with credible institutions, competitive infrastructure, skilled labor and access to energy or critical resources are better placed to attract manufacturing capacity and foreign investment. By contrast, countries that are heavily dependent on a single trading partner, lack policy credibility or are vulnerable to sanctions and trade restrictions may face a higher structural risk premium.
Country allocation alone, however, is not sufficient. Companies within the same market can have very different exposures to tariffs, export controls, Chinese inputs, US demand and supply-chain relocation. Corporate domicile is consequently becoming a less reliable guide to economic exposure. Investors need to understand where companies generate their revenues, source critical components, locate production and depend on government support or market access. This reinforces the importance of bottom-up research and selective stock picking.
The resulting environment is likely to produce greater dispersion rather than a uniform rise in EM assets. Some countries and companies will gain market share, investment and pricing power, while others will face higher costs, restricted access to technology or pressure on existing business models. For active investors, this creates opportunities to allocate capital toward the beneficiaries while limiting exposure to the more vulnerable parts of the EM universe.
To read the full report on how emerging markets are navigating the new geoeconomics, including analysis of the different approaches taken by Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico and Vietnam, download the full pdf
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