The second quarter of 2025 has been remarkable in many ways. No sooner had we clicked ‘send’ on our previous edition, than the world was greeted by Liberation Day. The immediate impact of the tariff shock and associated negativity saw a material weakening in risk assets across the board. Just one week later, ostensibly ‘spooked’ by sharp volatility in the Treasury and equity markets, came the 90-day reprieve on reciprocal tariffs stoking a dramatic recovery in the markets.
The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ (OBBBA), currently under consideration by the Senate, has been a further source of confusion and nervousness. Aside from the potential impact on the US deficit, the inclusion of Section 899 allowing for taxation of foreign investment remains a concern.
“
Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t. - Mark Twain
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East more recently, have only added to the uncertainty. Despite all of the above (and much more we could mention!), credit spreads reside at tighter levels than pre-Liberation Day. Stranger than fiction indeed.
In the following pages, we outline our latest views on credit markets and our outlook going forward.
Stay informed on Credit investing
Stay ahead with our newsletter on the latest in credit investing.
Important information
The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission ("SFC") in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. This document has been distributed by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (‘Robeco’). Robeco is regulated by the SFC in Hong Kong. This document has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the recipient and is for information purposes only. Any reproduction or distribution of this documentation, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents, without the prior written consent of Robeco, is prohibited. By accepting this documentation, the recipient agrees to the foregoing This document is intended to provide the reader with information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell certain securities or investment products. Investment decisions should only be based on the relevant prospectus and on thorough financial, fiscal and legal advice. Please refer to the relevant offering documents for details including the risk factors before making any investment decisions. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Investment Involves risks. Historical returns are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect Robeco’s expectations for the future. The value of your investments may fluctuate. Past performance is no indication of current or future performance.