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Blokland’s daily sketch

Blokland’s daily sketch

22-11-2019

The longest and slowest

  • Jeroen Blokland
    Jeroen
    Blokland
    Portfolio Manager, Robeco

The current economic expansion in the US is the longest on record. It is, however, also the slowest, generating the lowest average GDP growth. As the UBS chart shows, the average pace of growth has come down over time, underpinning the fact that potential GDP growth has also come down over time due to demographics, among other things. We, like UBS, expect this cycle to continue next year, with the odds of a recession relatively low, although significantly higher than zero. This should enable earnings growth to turn positive again. Hence, our 2020 base-case scenario is for equities to reach new all-time highs before struggling somewhat later on. Read more in our 2020 Outlook.

Read 2020 Outlook

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As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
Previous editions of the daily sketch can be found on my personal financial markets blog. All graphics provided are collected from Bloomberg data and public websites. They do not always reflect my personal opinion and may also not necessarily reflect the opinion of Robeco. Please cite all references or quote the original source if replicating content.

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