belgiumnl
Blokland’s daily sketch

Blokland’s daily sketch

14-05-2021 | Daily sketch
Brakes on emerging markets
  • Jeroen Blokland
    Jeroen
    Blokland
    Portfolio Manager
Global growth is skyrocketing, commodity prices are spiking, and a US dollar bull market is not that likely at this point in time. Historically, such circumstances have benefited emerging market equities from both an absolute as well as a relative perspective. Yet, the outlook for emerging markets looks less exuberant this time around. This has to do the relationship between relative GDP growth and the performance of EM equities versus DM equities. As today’s chart – from UBS – neatly shows, the smaller the gap in EM-DM GDP growth, the less attractive the relative performance of EM has been. Because of massive stimulus in developing markets, the GDP growth gap will decline further this year and next. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that relative GDP growth tends to move in longer cycles. During those cycles, other factors such as commodity prices, the US dollar and relative valuation can still translate into shorter periods of EM outperformance.
Volg ons nu ook op Instagram
Volg ons nu ook op Instagram
Volg ons

As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
Previous editions of the daily sketch can be found on my personal financial markets blog. All graphics provided are collected from Bloomberg data and public websites. They do not always reflect my personal opinion and may also not necessarily reflect the opinion of Robeco. Please cite all references or quote the original source if replicating content.

Gerelateerd aan dit artikel:
Logo

Disclaimer

De informatie op deze website is uitsluitend bedoeld voor professionele partijen. Een professioneel belegger is: een belegger die beroepsmatig over voldoende kennis, deskundigheid en ervaring beschikt om de financiële risico’s van de zelf genomen beleggingsbeslissing(en) adequaat in te schatten.

Bezoekers van deze website dienen zich ervan bewust te zijn dat zij zelf verantwoordelijk zijn voor naleving van alle in hun eigen land geldende wetten en voorschriften.

Door op Akkoord te klikken, bevestigt u dat u een professionele belegger bent. Indien u op Niet akkoord klikt, wordt u doorverwezen naar de omgeving voor particulieren.

Niet akkoord