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Decline

20-06-2023 · Insight

Sector recap of the past five years: IT a clear winner, Energy on a rollercoaster

The last five years have witnessed extraordinary turbulence in global stock markets, ranging from tech euphoria and a global pandemic to geopolitical upheaval like the invasion of Ukraine and significant fluctuations in interest rates.

    Authors

  • Simon Lansdorp - PhD, Portfolio Manager Sustainable Index Solutions

    Simon Lansdorp

    PhD, Portfolio Manager Sustainable Index Solutions

  • Jean-Paul van Brakel - Researcher

    Jean-Paul van Brakel

    Researcher

To enhance understanding of the equity markets during this period, we've analyzed returns from a sector perspective. Grouping stocks in this way helps us to better understand performance drivers: which cohorts excelled when?

The rollercoaster ride of the past years began on a high note, driven by cyclical growth stocks, primarily from the IT sector. This rally, however, came to a sudden halt towards the end of 2018. Fears of tightening monetary policies by central banks, slowing economies, and a worsening US-China trade war triggered a sell-off, characterized by a rotation from growth to value and from offensive to defensive. Investors especially offloaded stocks in IT, consumer discretionary, and energy stocks, while low-risk sectors like utilities fared better.

These fears proved to be exaggerated. Markets quickly recovered at the beginning of 2019, marking it as a prosperous year not only for stocks but nearly all financial assets. Falling interest rates worldwide played a significant role, as the devaluation made future cash flows more lucrative. Once more, Big Tech enjoyed particular success.

2020 was the year the world was gripped by the Covid-19 pandemic. Lockdowns asymmetrically impacted various sectors of the economy, resulting in extensive disparities in equity market returns. Sectors like e-commerce, online food delivery, content streaming, and video gaming saw an unprecedented surge in demand. Conversely, airlines, brick-and-mortar retailers, and restaurants struggled to stay afloat. IT and communication services sectors capitalized on the work-from-home trend, while the health care sector emerged as a beacon of hope for quick resolution.

With the rollout of the first Covid-19 vaccines at the close of 2020, all sectors began to rebound. Market sentiment in 2021 was primarily influenced by economies reopening due to extensive vaccination campaigns, inflationary concerns, supply chain pressures, and increased regulations that impacted Chinese tech companies.

But as economies started up again, the rapid post-pandemic economic recovery outpaced global energy supply, sending energy prices soaring and delivering hefty returns for the energy sector throughout 2021. The previous dominance of large-cap growth stocks waned, replaced by a resurgent performance of previously underperforming value stocks.
In 2022, global equity markets hit a roadblock as investors grappled with significant labor shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by further lockdowns. Additionally, high inflation numbers, whether transitory or not, incited fears of rising interest rates. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, compounded the concerns of investors. Energy prices rocketed even higher, fueling more inflation.

However, markets started to regain stability at the onset of 2023. Riding the wave of the artificial intelligence theme, IT stocks managed to outperform other sectors yet again, making it the standout winner over the past five years.

Methodology

Our animated bar chart showcases the one-year rolling USD gross returns of the 11 MSCI World sector indices, which are based on the GICS® sector classification. The returns are updated at the end of each quarter and interpolated in between. The sample runs from March 2018 to May 2023. For brevity, we’ve shortened the labels for ‘communication services’, ‘consumer discretionary’, and ‘consumer staples’ in the video.

The color of each bar represents each sector’s carbon footprint, ranging from low (blue) to high (magenta). The carbon footprint of each sector is calculated by market-cap-weighting the carbon footprint of the underlying constituents as of May 2023. The carbon footprint of each company is calculated by dividing TruCost Scope 1+2 carbon emissions by EVIC (enterprise value including cash).

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Footnotes

Image credits in order of appearance: Unsplash/James Yarema, DVIDS Public Domain Archive/Sgt. Mikki L. Sprenkle, Unsplash/Maxim Hopman, Unsplash/Martin Sanchez, Unsplash/Mufid Majnun, Unsplash/Carl Nenzen Loven, Unsplash/Marek Studzinski, Wikimedia/Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Unsplash/Alex Knight.

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Important information This disclaimer applies to any documents and the verbal or written comments of any person in presentations or webinars on this website and taken together is referred to herein as the “Information”. The services to which the Information relate are NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS - The information contained in the Website is solely intended for professional investors, defined as investors which (1) qualify as professional clients within the meaning of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), (2) have requested to be treated as professional clients within the meaning of the MiFID or (3) are authorized to receive such information under any other applicable laws and must not be relied or acted upon by any other persons. This Information does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any financial product, and may not be relied upon in connection with the purchase or sale of any financial product. You are cautioned against using this Information as the basis for making a decision to purchase any financial product. To the extent that you rely on the Information in connection with any investment decision, you do so at your own risk. The Information does not purport to be complete on any topic addressed. The Information may contain data or analysis prepared by third parties and no representation or warranty about the accuracy of such data or analysis is provided.
In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management UK Limited (“RIAM UK”) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. RIAM UK, 30 Fenchurch Street, Part Level 8, London EC3M 3BD (FCA Reference No:1007814). The company is registered in England and Wales under Ref No. 15362605.

In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Neither Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. nor any of its affiliates guarantees the performance or the future returns of any investments. If the currency in which the past performance is displayed differs from the currency of the country in which you reside, then you should be aware that due to exchange rate fluctuations the performance shown may increase or decrease if converted into your local currency. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (“Robeco”) expressly prohibits any redistribution of the Information without the prior written consent of Robeco. The Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to law, rule or regulation. Certain information contained in the Information includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. is authorised as a manager of UCITS and AIFs by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and subject to limited regulation in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.