Fixed income outlook: Get used to it

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Fixed income outlook: Get used to it

‘Liberation Day’ on April 2 marked a turning point in economic narratives, intensifying policy uncertainty around global tariffs. With the 90-day suspension of country-specific tariffs set to expire on July 9, markets are again dealing with policy unpredictability.

Explore the full report here

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense with the impact of Israel’s strike on Iran still unfolding. Yet despite these developments, markets have continued to perform steadily, suggesting a growing resilience to recurring macro and geopolitical noise.

In our Q2 outlook (Defend and Spend, published before April 2), we argued that geopolitical uncertainty would adversely impact global growth. This scenario is now materializing - especially in the US, where consumers and businesses have become more gloomy. Our leading indicator hints at downside risks to the 1% consensus forecast for US growth in H2 2025.

Remarkably, risk assets seem convinced that the most intense phase of trade uncertainty has passed. Credit market valuations have completed a full round trip. After the April spike, spreads recovered sharply and valuations have returned to pre-April levels. ‘Risk’ appears to be getting used to policy uncertainty.

Explore the full report here

Important information

This information is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any securities or products, nor as investment advice or recommendation. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). Robeco Singapore Private Limited holds a capital markets services license for fund management issued by the MAS and is subject to certain clientele restrictions under such license. An investment will involve a high degree of risk, and you should consider carefully whether an investment is suitable for you.