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5-year Expected Returns

2020-2024

Escaping the hall of mirrors

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Best Asset Allocation Paper

Savvy Investor Awards 2019

In our 116-page outlook, we present our forecasts for the 5-year Expected Returns for all major asset classes.

Return on developed market equities

3.25%

Return on emerging market equities

3.75%

Return on Euro Government Bonds

-1.75%

Annual returns denominated in euros

The Executive Summary

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By reacting to market expectations for further easing, monetary policy becomes a distorted image of its former self. Can central banks escape the ‘hall of mirrors’?

Our 5-year Expected Returns includes:

  • The expected returns for all major asset classes for the 2020-2024 period
  • Analysis of market valuations and macro scenarios
  • Four special topics
For the outlook on long-term steady-state returns, read our Long-Term Expected Returns.
Peter van der Welle

A notable shift in this year’s report is our downward revision of expected returns, owing to our view that a recession is inevitable between now and 2024.

Peter van der Welle, Multi-Asset Strategist

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Paving the way for unconventional policy
Paving the way for unconventional policy
Policy makers will turn to unconventional fiscal policy to deal with the next recession, says strategist Peter van der Welle.
02-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook
Refining the inclusion of views in portfolio construction
Refining the inclusion of views in portfolio construction
Taking investors’ views into account when building portfolios is difficult but essential, says Roderick Molenaar.
09-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.
23-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook
Celebrating 30 years of inflation targeting?
Celebrating 30 years of inflation targeting?
Inflation targeting is celebrating its 30th anniversary, but is now due for a makeover, says portfolio manager Rikkert Scholten.
16-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook

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‘Escaping the hall of mirrors’

Find out what our expected returns for all major asset classes are.


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