australiaen

5-year Expected Returns

2020-2024

Escaping the hall of mirrors

Download full publication

In our 116-page outlook, we present our forecasts for the 5-year Expected Returns for all major asset classes.


Return on developed market equities

3.25%

Return on emerging market equities

3.75%

Return on Euro Government Bonds

-1.75%

Annual returns denominated in euros

The Executive Summary

Download the summary

By reacting to market expectations for further easing, monetary policy becomes a distorted image of its former self. Can central banks escape the ‘hall of mirrors’?

Our 5-year Expected Returns includes:

  • The expected returns for all major asset classes for the 2020-2024 period
  • Analysis of market valuations and macro scenarios
  • Four special topics
For the outlook on long-term steady-state returns, read our Long-Term Expected Returns.
Bart Oldenkamp

A notable shift in this year’s report is our downward revision of expected returns, owing to our view that a recession is inevitable between now and 2024.

Bart Oldenkamp, Head of Robeco Investment Solutions

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Paving the way for unconventional policy
Paving the way for unconventional policy
Policy makers will turn to unconventional fiscal policy to deal with the next recession, says strategist Peter van der Welle.
5-Year outlook
Refining the inclusion of views in portfolio construction
Refining the inclusion of views in portfolio construction
Taking investors’ views into account when building portfolios is difficult but essential, says Roderick Molenaar.
5-Year outlook
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.
5-Year outlook
Celebrating 30 years of inflation targeting?
Celebrating 30 years of inflation targeting?
Inflation targeting is celebrating its 30th anniversary, but is now due for a makeover, says portfolio manager Rikkert Scholten.
5-Year outlook

Leave your details and download our Expected Returns 2020-2024

Download our new 5-year outlook (‘Escaping the hall of mirrors’) and find out what our expected returns for all major asset classes are.


This report is not available for users from countries where the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted, such as US Persons.
Your details are not shared with third parties. This information is exclusively intended for professional investors. All requests are checked.

Disclaimer

BY CLICKING ON “I AGREE”, I DECLARE I AM A WHOLESALE CLIENT AS DEFINED IN THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001.

What is a Wholesale Client?
A person or entity is a “wholesale client” if they satisfy the requirements of section 761G of the Corporations Act.
This commonly includes a person or entity:

  • who holds an Australian Financial Services License
  • who has or controls at least $10 million (and may include funds held by an associate or under a trust that the person manages)
  • that is a body regulated by APRA other than a trustee of:
    (i) a superannuation fund;
    (ii) an approved deposit fund;
    (iii) a pooled superannuation trust; or
    (iv) a public sector superannuation scheme.
    within the meaning of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993
  • that is a body registered under the Financial Corporations Act 1974.
  • that is a trustee of:
    (i) a superannuation fund; or
    (ii) an approved deposit fund; or
    (iii) a pooled superannuation trust; or
    (iv) a public sector superannuation scheme
    within the meaning of the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 and the fund, trust or scheme has net assets of at least $10 million.
  • that is a listed entity or a related body corporate of a listed entity
  • that is an exempt public authority
  • that is a body corporate, or an unincorporated body, that:
    (i) carries on a business of investment in financial products, interests in land or other investments; and
    (ii) for those purposes, invests funds received (directly or indirectly) following an offer or invitation to the public, within the meaning of section 82 of the Corporations Act 2001, the terms of which provided for the funds subscribed to be invested for those purposes.
  • that is a foreign entity which, if established or incorporated in Australia, would be covered by one of the preceding paragraphs.
I Disagree