5-year Expected Returns

2020-2024

Escaping the hall of mirrors

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In our 116-page outlook, we present our forecasts for the 5-year Expected Returns for all major asset classes.

Return on developed market equities

3.25%

Return on emerging market equities

3.75%

Return on Euro Government Bonds

-1.75%

Annual returns denominated in euros

The Executive Summary

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By reacting to market expectations for further easing, monetary policy becomes a distorted image of its former self. Can central banks escape the ‘hall of mirrors’?

Our 5-year Expected Returns includes:

The expected returns for all major asset classes for the 2020-2024 period
Analysis of market valuations and macro scenarios
Four special topics

For the outlook on long-term steady-state returns, read our Long-Term Expected Returns.

A notable shift in this year’s report is our downward revision of expected returns, owing to our view that a recession is inevitable between now and 2024.

Bart Oldenkamp, Head of Robeco Investment Solutions

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Special topics

In this section we address four questions faced by professional investors.

Paving the way for unconventional policy

Policy makers will turn to unconventional fiscal policy to deal with the next recession, says strategist Peter van der Welle.

5-Year outlook

Refining the inclusion of views in portfolio construction

Taking investors’ views into account when building portfolios is difficult but essential, says Roderick Molenaar.

5-Year outlook

Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio

Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.

5-Year outlook

Celebrating 30 years of inflation targeting?

Inflation targeting is celebrating its 30th anniversary, but is now due for a makeover, says portfolio manager Rikkert Scholten.

5-Year outlook

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Download our new 5-year outlook (‘Escaping the hall of mirrors’) and find out what our expected returns for all major asset classes are.

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