We see the current rally as typical of bear markets. At this stage in the cycle, the biggest risks are weakening earnings and, eventually, downgrades (investment grade) and defaults (high yield). We think this is now playing out as evidenced by the many profit warnings that have been issued.
So why have markets bounced so vigorously? A dovish Fed shift, expectations for a China trade deal and the backdrop of an oversold market late last year all help explain.
In times such as these, when thorough issuer selection pays off, the market will increasingly distinguish between winners and losers. We construct our portfolios cautiously. We are also conscious of the fact that it is expensive to be underweight. But rather than succumbing to the temptation to be long for the carry, we prefer to get prepared so we can return quickly after markets have repriced.
This report is not available for users from countries where the offering of foreign financial services is not permitted, such as US Persons.
Your details are not shared with third parties. This information is exclusively intended for professional investors. All requests are checked.
Neither information nor any opinion expressed on the website constitutes a solicitation, an offer or a recommendation to buy, sell or dispose of any investment, to engage in any other transaction or to provide any investment advice or service. An investment in a Robeco product should only be made after reading the related legal documents such as management regulations, prospectuses, annual and semi-annual reports, which can be all be obtained free of charge at this website and at the Robeco offices in each country where Robeco has a presence.