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Blokland’s daily sketch

Blokland’s daily sketch

09-04-2021 | Daily sketch
US retail investors are really, really bullish
  • Jeroen Blokland
    Jeroen
    Blokland
    Portfolio Manager
Another streak of record highs in US equity markets have made US retail investors extremely bullish. The percentage of net bulls – bulls minus bears – in the AAII Sentiment Survey has risen to levels seen only a couple of times in the last ten years. Like many other sentiment indicators, some of which also look pretty stretched, the AAII Sentiment Survey gives contrarian signals at extremes. Historically, forward returns on the S&P 500 have been the weakest when US investors are this upbeat, though on average they have still been marginally positive. In the near term, however, with part of our risk budget allocated to regional and value equity tilts, commodities and short duration, we won’t be chasing this rally.
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As a senior portfolio manager I use charts to illustrate financial issues every day. I tweet my favorites as @jsblokland and was named 'one of the 50 most important people for investors to follow in 2018' by MarketWatch.
Previous editions of the daily sketch can be found on my personal financial markets blog. All graphics provided are collected from Bloomberg data and public websites. They do not always reflect my personal opinion and may also not necessarily reflect the opinion of Robeco. Please cite all references or quote the original source if replicating content.

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