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Insights

Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
In the past 50 years, every single recessionary peak in credit spreads has been preceded by a peak in government bond yields.
20-09-2022 | Insight
Central bank watcher: Work in progress
Central bank watcher: Work in progress
Financial markets are already giving a verdict on tighter monetary policy in US and European markets.
13-09-2022 | Insight
Schrödinger’s economy – when should we open the box?
Schrödinger’s economy – when should we open the box?
Knowing the true state of the US economy will be key to assessing risks for the coming months, says multi-asset investor Colin Graham.
07-09-2022 | Monthly outlook
Anyone for hiking this summer?
Anyone for hiking this summer?
Hiking in summer is a popular way of getting away from it all, rambling across the hills and enjoying the views.
30-06-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Credit outlook: The mess after the largesse
Credit outlook: The mess after the largesse
We have seen a very significant repricing of fixed income, but panic and volatility can also provide opportunities.
28-06-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: The inflation game
Fixed income outlook: The inflation game
Central banks now face the predicament of prioritizing inflation over growth.
21-06-2022 | Insight
Markets are a voting machine, investing is a weighing machine
Markets are a voting machine, investing is a weighing machine
Weighing up the long view has never been more important as turbulence continues to hit markets, says multi-asset investor Colin Graham.
18-05-2022 | Insight
REITs: playing in extra time?
REITs: playing in extra time?
They’ve long been seen as defensive, since traditional bricks and mortar can usually survive any downturn.
05-05-2022 | Monthly outlook
Credit outlook: ‘If I have to make a tackle, I’ve already made a mistake’
Credit outlook: ‘If I have to make a tackle, I’ve already made a mistake’
The Fed may have made a policy mistake by starting this tightening cycle too late.
29-03-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Czech mate
Fixed income outlook: Czech mate
We’re facing the risk of central bank policy error.
22-03-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Buying the dip? Watch out you don’t trip
Buying the dip? Watch out you don’t trip
Investors should be cautious about re-entering the stock market after the correction in January, says strategist Peter van der Welle.
08-02-2022 | Monthly outlook
Inflation fears and a more hawkish Fed spook markets
Inflation fears and a more hawkish Fed spook markets
Rising inflation that prompted the Fed to suggest faster tapering which may accelerate rate hikes has rattled markets.
08-12-2021 | Monthly outlook
Credit outlook: Imperfect information and imperfect foresight
Credit outlook: Imperfect information and imperfect foresight
With so many distorting elements at play right now, we can’t rely on economic theory for easy answers.
07-12-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Pricing sigma
Fixed income outlook: Pricing sigma
We note several multiple sigma events across fixed income markets.
30-11-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Central banks' post-pandemic playbook
Central banks' post-pandemic playbook
Central banks have thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at their fight to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19.
20-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
Credit outlook: Common prosperity
Credit outlook: Common prosperity
Changing policy in China will have repercussions for the rest of the world – and for credit markets.
21-09-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Tunnel vision
Fixed income outlook: Tunnel vision
There is plenty of evidence of herding and groupthink.
14-09-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Credit outlook: Humble
Credit outlook: Humble
It’s best to be humble about the many unknowns and distortions as economies reopen.
23-06-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Inflation hyperventilation
Fixed income outlook: Inflation hyperventilation
Heading into H2, we still find plenty to disagree with in the prevailing market consensus.
15-06-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Credit outlook: Running the economy hot
Credit outlook: Running the economy hot
While it’s possible that credits could keep rallying, the margin for error is extremely limited.
31-03-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Podcast: No need to fear an inflationary accident – just yet
Podcast: No need to fear an inflationary accident – just yet
It’s inevitable that the forceful fiscal stimulus and exceptionally loose monetary policy currently in place will result in higher inflation.
30-03-2021 | Podcast
Fixed income outlook: Coming to America
Fixed income outlook: Coming to America
Several things are coming to America.
23-03-2021 | Quarterly outlook
The return of Term Premium
The return of Term Premium
Despite all the focus on the inflation outlook and ongoing Fed hikes, the recent sell-off in US Treasuries was actually driven to a large extent by a reawaking of the term premium.
19-11-2018 | Insight
Credit outlook: risk management is key
Credit outlook: risk management is key
The 2018 outlook on credits is cautious.
23-01-2018 | Video
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