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Insights

Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
Fixed income outlook: Twin peaks
In the past 50 years, every single recessionary peak in credit spreads has been preceded by a peak in government bond yields.
20-09-2022 | Insight
Central bank watcher: Work in progress
Central bank watcher: Work in progress
Financial markets are already giving a verdict on tighter monetary policy in US and European markets.
13-09-2022 | Insight
Credit outlook: The mess after the largesse
Credit outlook: The mess after the largesse
We have seen a very significant repricing of fixed income, but panic and volatility can also provide opportunities.
28-06-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: The inflation game
Fixed income outlook: The inflation game
Central banks now face the predicament of prioritizing inflation over growth.
21-06-2022 | Insight
ECB set to end negative policy rates soon
ECB set to end negative policy rates soon
In line with other major central banks, the ECB is pivoting its policy stance sharply towards tightening.
09-06-2022 | Insight
Credit outlook: ‘If I have to make a tackle, I’ve already made a mistake’
Credit outlook: ‘If I have to make a tackle, I’ve already made a mistake’
The Fed may have made a policy mistake by starting this tightening cycle too late.
29-03-2022 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Pricing sigma
Fixed income outlook: Pricing sigma
We note several multiple sigma events across fixed income markets.
30-11-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Central banks' post-pandemic playbook
Central banks' post-pandemic playbook
Central banks have thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at their fight to mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19.
20-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
Central Banks’ post-pandemic playbook
Central Banks’ post-pandemic playbook
Over the coming years, central banks will aim to unwind the massive support they have provided during the pandemic.
11-10-2021 | Digital event
Credit outlook: Common prosperity
Credit outlook: Common prosperity
Changing policy in China will have repercussions for the rest of the world – and for credit markets.
21-09-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Tunnel vision
Fixed income outlook: Tunnel vision
There is plenty of evidence of herding and groupthink.
14-09-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Inflation hyperventilation
Fixed income outlook: Inflation hyperventilation
Heading into H2, we still find plenty to disagree with in the prevailing market consensus.
15-06-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Europe takes up the baton
Europe takes up the baton
Vaccination success will allow Europe’s economic recovery to catch up with the US and China, says strategist Peter van der Welle.
08-06-2021 | Monthly outlook
Fixed income outlook: Coming to America
Fixed income outlook: Coming to America
Several things are coming to America.
23-03-2021 | Quarterly outlook
Interest rates – don’t be so negative
Interest rates – don’t be so negative
How fashionable will negative interest rates be in five years’ time?
26-10-2020 | 5-Year outlook
Fixed income outlook: The Covid shock and the Baa recovery
Fixed income outlook: The Covid shock and the Baa recovery
Fixed income opportunities are shifting swiftly away from safe-haven government bonds towards credit.
01-04-2020 | Quarterly outlook
The return of Term Premium
The return of Term Premium
Despite all the focus on the inflation outlook and ongoing Fed hikes, the recent sell-off in US Treasuries was actually driven to a large extent by a reawaking of the term premium.
19-11-2018 | Insight
Credit outlook: risk management is key
Credit outlook: risk management is key
The 2018 outlook on credits is cautious.
23-01-2018 | Video
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