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Insights

5-year Expected Returns: The Age of Confusion
5-year Expected Returns: The Age of Confusion
Welcome to terra incognita, a new era in which the certainties that a generation of investors have grown so used to have started to crumble before our very eyes.
21-09-2022 | 5-Year outlook
Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation
Investing across deflation, inflation and stagflation
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation.
29-08-2022 | Insight
Forecasting stock crash risk with machine learning
Forecasting stock crash risk with machine learning
Machine learning techniques can be used to uncover nonlinear relationships between several variables to help forecast stock crash risk.
15-06-2022 | Insight
What's so cryptic about cryptocurrencies?
What's so cryptic about cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin could qualify as digital gold, and the blockchain technology behind it has enormous potential, say quant researcher Laurens Swinkels and strategist Peter van der Welle.
13-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
Expected Returns 2022-2026 – Watch the full show
Expected Returns 2022-2026 – Watch the full show
Things are heating up, in different senses of the phrase.
07-10-2021 | Digital event
Some factors are now more equal than others
Some factors are now more equal than others
There is no free lunch when it comes to harvesting factor premiums.
06-10-2021 | 5-Year outlook
What valuations and interest rates tell us about equity factors
What valuations and interest rates tell us about equity factors
Single and multi-factor equity portfolios are currently very attractively valued and factor premiums persist across interest rate cycles.
04-10-2021 | Insight
Factoring climate change into Expected Returns forecasts
Factoring climate change into Expected Returns forecasts
The impact of climate change has been factored into the core forecasts in Expected Returns for the first time in the five-year outlook’s 11-year history.
30-09-2021 | 5-Year outlook
5-year Expected Returns: the Roasting Twenties
5-year Expected Returns: the Roasting Twenties
Things are heating up and our tech optimism is intertwined with that sinking feeling that climate catastrophe is closing in.
29-09-2021 | Insight
Fresh capital has not run dry for unsustainable firms
Fresh capital has not run dry for unsustainable firms
Despite rising interest in sustainable investing, unsustainable companies have faced no obstacles in raising funds in public markets.
11-03-2021 | Research
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Filtering out fraud risk in Chinese A-share markets
Chinese equity markets have emerged as one of the big winners following the Covid-19 shock.
26-11-2020 | Yearly outlook
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Giving China its rightful share in your portfolio
Chinese stocks are a major new investment opportunity, yet they are under-represented in most portfolios, say Laurens Swinkels and Jaap Hoek.
23-10-2019 | 5-Year outlook