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Turbulence ahead

Turbulence ahead

Investment outlook 2019
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The bull market has caused a number of noticeable divergences within asset classes. We highlight some of them in this outlook, as we think they will offer good investment opportunities in 2019.


  • Growthversusvalue stocks

  • Developedversusemerging markets

  • USversusthe rest of the world

In an environment where the economic outlook looks promising, the warning ‘turbulence ahead’ seems out of place. But we see clouds on the horizon, including:

  • Fed rate hiking
  • Trade wars
  • Mounting inflationary risks

We don’t expect them to derail the economy just yet, as growth is still too strong. But we do expect concerns to grow as time progresses.

In this outlook we look at the implications for the major asset classes, as well as the opportunities these ‘clouds’ represent.
Peter van der Welle, strategist

The bright economic picture is expected to be overshadowed by concerns that this long bull market will soon end. Fueling these fears are issues such as rising interest rates, protectionism, Italy and Brexit. Investors would be well-advised to prepare for these concerns becoming reality.

Peter van der Welle, strategist

Special themes

Ten things that might move the markets in 2019

Special themes

Ten things that might move the markets in 2019

Is it time for more defensive equity investing?
Is it time for more defensive equity investing?
There are plenty of reasons to pursue a more defensive equity strategy, but paradoxically enough, this also carries several risks.
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An alternative after all
An alternative after all
After eight consecutive Fed rate hikes, investors finally have an alternative to risky assets: USD cash.
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Positioning for a shift towards value stocks
Positioning for a shift towards value stocks
We think now is a very good time for investors to introduce value stocks to their portfolios.
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Don’t overshoot the exit
Don’t overshoot the exit
As with most asset classes, specific segments within credits always offer attractive opportunities.
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Are emerging markets on the rebound?
Are emerging markets on the rebound?
We expect emerging market equities to outperform developed market equities in 2019.
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Two European headaches: Brexit and Italy
Two European headaches: Brexit and Italy
Drawing a line under both of these situations will help European equities deliver improved relative performance within a global equity portfolio, and banks will play a key role in this.
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Leveraging new technologies in finance
Leveraging new technologies in finance
We currently see a number of specific developments that make fintech an interesting investment theme for next year.
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Electric vehicles coming of age
Electric vehicles coming of age
In the coming years, the global automotive industry will go through its most radical change as vehicle electrification and changing consumer preferences challenge existing business models.
13-12-2018 | Insight

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