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Earnings engine in lower gear but still humming

Earnings engine in lower gear but still humming

07-01-2022 | Quarterly outlook
As the new year begins, we maintain our positive outlook for developed markets, as well as our neutral stance on their emerging counterparts. Both the global monetary environment and prospects for corporate earnings remain market-supportive.
  • Arnout  van Rijn
    Arnout
    van Rijn
    CIO Asia Pacific
  • Wim-Hein  Pals
    Wim-Hein
    Pals
    Head of Emerging Markets team
  • Audrey Kaplan
    Audrey
    Kaplan
    Portfolio Manager
  • Michiel  Plakman
    Michiel
    Plakman
    Portfolio Manager

Speed read

  • Monetary environment remains market-supportive going into 2022
  • Earnings engine in lower gear, but still humming in most countries
  • We continue to prefer developed over emerging markets

Admittedly, major central banks are aware they may have overdone their stimulus with inflation popping up in many areas. We will thus see more tightening announcements in the first quarter, as they try to normalize policies. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to make its first hike in March 2022, with a few more planned for later in the year. This has historically been a more difficult environment for emerging equity markets to perform. 

Despite that, our outlook for both developed and emerging markets remains broadly unchanged. Global liquidity is still expansive, and the world’s largest central banks remain accommodative overall. Moreover, as the strong keep getting stronger, earnings expectations are still likely to be outgunned. In fact, in both developed and emerging markets, the outlook for corporate earnings remains supportive. 2021 was a bumper year, but we expect decent growth for 2022 as well.

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