“The road towards a new normal differs among countries. Those countries managing to solve the trilemma first are also likely to be the economic winners of 2021.”
Jeroen Blokland, Head of Multi AssetIt’s all about the vaccine
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In our base case, a vaccine becomes available in the first half of 2021. However, of equal importance is the vaccine being sufficiently available, widely distributed and broadly accepted. We see some hiccups and setbacks in the process.
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Our bull case sees multiple effective vaccines arriving earlier. Logistical challenges in vaccine distribution are dealt with effectively, and the economy is freed from the pendulum swing between lockdowns and re-openings. Here we see room for Keynes’ animal spirits.
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In our bear case, vaccine development experiences setbacks, with a very limited number of vaccines on the market by only the end of 2021. This does anything but improve the trade-off policymakers have to make between public health, the economy, and personal freedom.
Special topics
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