japanja
‘You need a command economy, and this goes against conventional wisdom’

‘You need a command economy, and this goes against conventional wisdom’

11-11-2019 | インタビュー
Chandran Nair is not one to pull his punches when it comes to dealing with the world’s problems. One of the leading global figures in framing sustainable development, he is the founder and CEO of the Global Institute For Tomorrow (GIFT), an independent think tank which aims to promote greater understanding of how Asia is changing. He is the author of ‘Consumptionomics: Asia's Role in Reshaping Capitalism and Saving the Planet’.
  • John Coppock
    John
    Coppock
    Investment writer
We talked with him about sustainability issues run into political dogma, why not everyone can have middle-class lifestyles, and how consumption lies at the root of the resources problem.

Does Asian consumption present a major problem for sustainability?

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that six billion Asians in 2050 consuming like the average American or European is not possible. It would defy all of the laws of science, physics and thermodynamics. That is the crux of the debate for the 21st century: how do we deliver on prosperity, and there’s a big question about how do we define prosperity. What are the limits to our prosperity? If you accept the scientific evidence, then unbridled consumption is not an option.

So that's really where I'm coming from. For Europe and the United States, much of the discussion on sustainability has essentially always deliberately avoided this difficult issue, because it's politically unacceptable to talk about reducing consumption.”

最新の「インサイト」を読む
最新の「インサイト」を読む
配信登録

But aren’t India or China entitled to have to have the living standards of the West?

“The solution is to think about what people are entitled to, and to look at the problem as an existential threat, whether it's climate or other resources. Then you ask what a solution entails, and it entails defining what people can have, rather than saying people can have everything. That's where I think the ideological obsessions of having free markets and unfettered rights get in the way of logical thinking.

The narrative is currently described by so-called experts who see it all through a lens which avoids the discussion about what can Indians actually have. My point is that all Indians can't have what is defined as a middle-class lifestyle. These are economic definitions which do not reflect anything about the constraints on India. You really need a command economy, and all of this as you know goes against the grain of current conventional wisdom.”

What about moving to a circular economy?

“It’s easy to talk about a circular economy for small, rich economies that are well governed. But for large economies it is very difficult. China can do it but India can’t, and this is the thing that makes people really uncomfortable, because China has such a strong state. The Chinese government can dictate certain things. In my view its ability to dig deep under these conditions is a positive outcome for the nation going forward. In India, where democracy is seen as essentially the way it's organized, it's a mess. India can't do anything – it can’t even build toilets.”

So, do we dump democracy?

“The problem we have – and this is also very controversial – is that we have this world view that somehow democracy is the sacrosanct thing that we have to protect. But democracy doesn't sit comfortably with the notion of individual restraint or collective welfare. So, we can use these terms, but the reality of large-scale societies is essentially one of how do you manage a shared economy where the base is so low. Even in richer societies such as Hong Kong, where we have a free market capitalist economy, there are people who are much poorer than others.”

Is the solution then to move to command economy and do what China does?

“I think the words ‘democracy’ and all of that are emotive words. I would argue that China is more democratic than India, because if the purpose of a government is to work for the public good and therefore improve their quality of life, then China has delivered that while India hasn’t. Words such as ‘democracy’ are inappropriate because they come with emotion and definitions which in my view do not suit the 21st century and the existential threats that we have.

The solution in my view is models where essentially collective welfare overrides individual rights, and resource constraints essentially dictate how the economy is shaped.”

What about population control, which was practiced by China?

“Population is an interesting one, as only China could do a one-child policy; no other country could do that. India dabbled with it but failed, and it resulted in a whole lot of chaos. My working assumption is that the global population will peak at between 9.5 and 10 billion people, or some say even 11 billion people. The world can support 11 billion people, but it can't support 11 billion people in which 3 billion consume 80% of the world's resources. That is the problem.

And that’s the same at country levels too – in India,10% of the population consumes 80% of the resources. It's an extraordinary amount of concentration of consumption in the hands of a minority, and you can't have this.”

Is properly pricing resources part of the solution?

“Pricing resources means pricing consumption. My fundamental view is that you have to price consumption. If you're pricing palm oil, then you are pricing rainforests, which has an impact on carbon. We have to start pricing water, as it is totally underpriced. In India, in most places, water is free. So, you can see what's happened – you have the illegal use of fresh water all over the world.

Pricing is central to stopping this. To control the resources used, you would have to price them, and therefore challenge the current economic model, which as I often say allows you to buy one and get one free. That is voodoo economics.”

重要事項

当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。

ご契約に際しては、必要に応じ専門家にご相談の上、最終的なご判断はお客様ご自身でなさるようお願い致します。

運用を行う資産の評価額は、組入有価証券等の価格、金融市場の相場や金利等の変動、及び組入有価証券の発行体の財務状況による信用力等の影響を受けて変動します。また、外貨建資産に投資する場合は為替変動の影響も受けます。運用によって生じた損益は、全て投資家の皆様に帰属します。したがって投資元本や一定の運用成果が保証されているものではなく、投資元本を上回る損失を被ることがあります。弊社が行う金融商品取引業に係る手数料または報酬は、締結される契約の種類や契約資産額により異なるため、当資料において記載せず別途ご提示させて頂く場合があります。具体的な手数料または報酬の金額・計算方法につきましては弊社担当者へお問合せください。

当資料及び記載されている情報、商品に関する権利は弊社に帰属します。したがって、弊社の書面による同意なくしてその全部もしくは一部を複製またはその他の方法で配布することはご遠慮ください。

商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会