japanja
A first step towards normalization

A first step towards normalization

04-12-2018 | インサイト

The European Central Bank is ready to raise interest rates for the first time since Draghi took office. The question is whether it will happen before the end of his term.

  • Ruud van Suijdam
    Ruud
    van Suijdam
    Portfolio Manager
Source: thomson Reuters Datastream, Robeco

Mario Draghi might go down in history as the only European Central Bank (ECB) president never to have raised interest rates. When he took office in November 2011, the lending rate stood at 1.5% and it gradually dropped to the current level of 0.0% during the course of his tenure. The ECB looks set to hike rates for the first time next year, but it will be a close call if it happens before Draghi steps down.

The ECB will, after all, be on automatic pilot until the fall of 2019: quantitative easing will end at the start of next year and interest rates will be kept at their current level at least until after the summer. As such, the ECB's meeting on 12 September 2019 could be the earliest opportunity to raise interest rates. After that, there will be one last chance for Draghi on 24 October, before his term ends a week later on 31 October.

Nonetheless, we think the ECB is likely to take a first modest step towards normalizing short-term interest rates in September, as the Eurozone economy continues to show strong growth. Over the last five years, unemployment showed an impressive drop from 12% to 8% and is continuing this downward trend. Additionally, more wage inflation is expected. This provides room to raise the abnormal and market-distorting negative deposit rate incrementally from minus 0.4% to 0.0% in December, with the lending rate moving back into positive territory.

This article is part of our investment outlook 2019: ‘Turbulence ahead’.
This article is part of our investment outlook 2019: ‘Turbulence ahead’.
Read more

Deflationary shocks

A rise in Germany's capital market interest rates is also expected. At around 0.4%, it is unnaturally low, while the Eurozone's core inflation rate is about 1.0%. The low rates are partly due to the ECB's bond-buying policy, which will be discontinued at the end of the year.

German Bunds are, after all, one of a select group of investments still considered to be a safe haven. This stability is particularly welcome in Europe, where political turmoil still abounds. A scarce commodity is simply more expensive and in the case of bonds, this equates not only to high prices but also to low yields. Their safe-haven status offers investors asymmetric protection against deflationary shocks.

A ‘hard’ Brexit could trigger a deflationary impulse. This risk will probably be a thing of the past after March 2019, when the UK officially leaves the European Union and a transition deal takes effect. For all intents and purposes, this deal will keep the UK in the internal market for years to come and have no economic effect compared to the current situation.

Collapse of the Eurozone

The collapse of the Eurozone would also have a strong deflationary effect on the region's economy. That risk is not entirely unrealistic and, over the last few years, it has continued to rear its ugly head, albeit in different forms. This time Italy is taking its turn in violating earlier budget agreements − risking getting stuck in a downward spiral of rising interest expenses, higher budget deficits, costly recapitalization of its shaky banking sector and a downgrading of its credit rating. The ECB can only assist the country once it starts to comply with EU agreements again.

But at the same time, that would obviate the need for assistance, as it would send the risk premium on Italian government bonds plummeting again. Under pressure from the bond market, we expect the Italian government to cut its losses at some point. This will give German capital market interest rates room to rise because the risk of collapse will be judged to be much lower.

Due to its flawed structure, the Eurozone is more vulnerable to inflation and default than deflation, unlike the United States, for instance. ECB policy must always take this into account.

The new Draghi

Deciding who replaces Draghi will be the outcome of a complex diplomatic chess game. A number of top European positions have to be filled (presidents of the European Commission, European Council and European Parliament), and the regional balance must be maintained. The importance of the individual should not be overestimated, either, as the ECB is the only key European body that decides by simple majority vote.

Furthermore, Italy's high debt burden is a factor that for the years to come will significantly limit the leeway of Draghi's successor. In an effort to support the weakest link, in this case Italy, with its relatively modest growth, the interest rate policy will retain a certain asymmetry.

Outlook 2019: Turbulence ahead
Download the full 2019 Outlook

重要事項

当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。

ご契約に際しては、必要に応じ専門家にご相談の上、最終的なご判断はお客様ご自身でなさるようお願い致します。

運用を行う資産の評価額は、組入有価証券等の価格、金融市場の相場や金利等の変動、及び組入有価証券の発行体の財務状況による信用力等の影響を受けて変動します。また、外貨建資産に投資する場合は為替変動の影響も受けます。運用によって生じた損益は、全て投資家の皆様に帰属します。したがって投資元本や一定の運用成果が保証されているものではなく、投資元本を上回る損失を被ることがあります。弊社が行う金融商品取引業に係る手数料または報酬は、締結される契約の種類や契約資産額により異なるため、当資料において記載せず別途ご提示させて頂く場合があります。具体的な手数料または報酬の金額・計算方法につきましては弊社担当者へお問合せください。

当資料及び記載されている情報、商品に関する権利は弊社に帰属します。したがって、弊社の書面による同意なくしてその全部もしくは一部を複製またはその他の方法で配布することはご遠慮ください。

商号等: ロベコ・ジャパン株式会社  金融商品取引業者 関東財務局長(金商)第2780号

加入協会: 一般社団法人 日本投資顧問業協会

本記事に関連するテーマ: