Waiting for Trump makes us neutral on equities for now

Waiting for Trump makes us neutral on equities for now

12-01-2017 | インサイト

Economies are doing reasonably fine, not spectacularly well. Although we have no indication that economies are getting worse, the outlook is still a bit gloomy, with risks arising mostly from the political arena.

  • Lukas Daalder
    Chief Investment Officer

There are plenty of uncertainties, such as what the Trump administration will do. China has an important year in its political cycle, and incentive enough to keep its growth rates going. Yet the main political issues will probably arise in Europe, with several elections taking place in 2017. The outcomes and how the Brexit negotiations develop will steer the future of the European Union. The ECB had already expanded its stimulus program, albeit at a lower level, to towards the end of 2017, ensuring that more can be done if necessary. As a result, we remain neutral on equities, with a preference for developed markets over emerging markets, as the latter face headwinds from different sides.

Becoming Trump watchers

US rates will be crucial for bonds. Aside from being Fed watchers, we also need to become Trump watchers, because a lot will depend on the execution of the plans announced during the election period. Political events may cause interest rate volatility in Europe, with the ECB acting as a kind of watchdog on the sideline. Our underweight to government bonds still seems to be appropriate.


We still have a cautious portfolio positioning. Source: Robeco


当資料は情報提供を目的として、Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V.が作成した英文資料、もしくはその英文資料をロベコ・ジャパン株式会社が翻訳したものです。資料中の個別の金融商品の売買の勧誘や推奨等を目的とするものではありません。記載された情報は十分信頼できるものであると考えておりますが、その正確性、完全性を保証するものではありません。意見や見通しはあくまで作成日における弊社の判断に基づくものであり、今後予告なしに変更されることがあります。運用状況、市場動向、意見等は、過去の一時点あるいは過去の一定期間についてのものであり、過去の実績は将来の運用成果を保証または示唆するものではありません。また、記載された投資方針・戦略等は全ての投資家の皆様に適合するとは限りません。当資料は法律、税務、会計面での助言の提供を意図するものではありません。




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