In our base case, a vaccine becomes available in the first half of 2021. However, of equal importance is the vaccine being sufficiently available, widely distributed and broadly accepted. We see some hiccups and setbacks in the process.
Our bull case sees multiple effective vaccines arriving earlier. Logistical challenges in vaccine distribution are dealt with effectively, and the economy is freed from the pendulum swing between lockdowns and re-openings. Here we see room for Keynes’ animal spirits.